Cephalon's Upside and Downside

Cephalon (CEPH) specializes in bio-pharmaceuticals that target central nervous system (CNS) disorders, pain treatments, and oncology (cancer). The star product over the past few years has been Provigil, a treatment for sleep disorders, that has accounted for about half of sales. Other significant drugs in the portfolio are Fentora and Actiq (the former a replacement for the latter), which account for nearly 25% of sales. Fentora and Actiq are designed to treat cancer-related pain. The final meaningful drug is Treanda, a treatment for leukemia and lymphoma, although Cephalon also has numerous other smaller formulations that target conditions such as seizures and spasms.

Cephalon's growth will largely be tied to its newest product: Nuvigil, a replacement for Provigil which is facing imminent generic competition and loses patent protection in the next few years. Nuvigil has several advantages over the older drug, including fewer side effects and better effectiveness. Best of all for Cephalon, the drug was just launched this summer and offers over 10 years of patent protection. Nuvigil is set to be the engine of growth, particularly through expanded indications for jet lag, bipolar depression, schizophrenia, Parkinson's disease, and others. If all goes to plan, Cephalon will be able to migrate Provigil patients into Nuvigil, protecting them from competitors, and gain new patients through the expanded label.