While I do love this stock, the macroeconomic factors (in particular the rising cost of gasoline) will hurt consumer spending in this segment in the upcoming quarters. I like this stock for the long-term, however I think it will have a rough couple of quarters. Its best to avoid this stock until things have settled down. If you have followed my recommendation from the beginning, I would suggest you take your profits now.
Buffalo Wild Wings are a chain of 494 franchised and wholly owned restaurants in 37 states featuring a variety of menu items including its famous chicken wings spun in one of its 10+ signature sauces. The company’s restaurants also feature a full bar and approximately 40 televisions that are used for sporting events, PPV events, trivia, and video games.
Investment Thesis
BWLD is a BUY at the current market price. I believe that the stock should be trading at a fair value of $30. There are three major reasons why I believe that the stock is undervalued:
On May 26, 2006, I posted Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $39.42. On June 18, 2007, BWLD had a 2:1 stock split, making my effective 'pick price' actually $19.71. BWLD closed at $27.23 on November 23, 2007, for a gain of $7.52 or 38.2% since posting.
On October 30, 2007, Buffalo Wild Wings announced 3rd quarter 2007 results . Total revenue climbed 20.5% to $82.4 million up from $68.3 million. Same store sales increased 8.3% at company owned restaurants and 5.9% at franchised restaurants. Earnings per share for the quarter
Earlier today I was looking through the list of top % gainers on the NASDAQ and was pleased to see an "old favorite" of mine, Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) on the list. BWLD closed at $74.20, up $9.36 or 14.44% on the day.
I use the term "old favorite" to describe stocks that I have reviewed here previously. As much as possible, I try to wait about a year before revisiting them when the opportunity arises. In fact, I wrote up Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice on May 26, 2006 , when the stock was trading at $39.42. With today's close at $74.20, this represents
As I write this, shares of one of my top holdings, Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), is being knocked down by 20% due to an earnings miss after Monday night's market close. I have owned shares of Buffalo Wild Wings for over a year and have bought once again to lower my average cost.
The earnings came in Monday night around 5pm at 25 cents per share vs. a consensus of 31 cents per share (see conference call transcript). The company earned $4.6 million, up from $4.3 million in the same period last year. Revenue was up 29% versus last year. Same store sales in company owned stores were up almost 7%. S
PAREXEL (Nasdaq: PRXL) 13% LOWER; reports Q1 EPS of $0.23, 1 cent better than the analyst estimate of $0.22. Revenue for the quarter was $263 million, versus the consensus of $274.38 million. Sees Q2 EPS of $0.18-$0.20, versus the consensus of $0.27 and revs of $265-$275 million, versus the consensus of $306.7 million. Raises FY09 EPS from $1.09-$1.17 to $1.07-$1.13, versus the Street of $1.14 and revs move from $1.22-$1.25 billion to $1.1-$1.13 billion, versus the consensus of $1.23 billion.
Harmonic (Nasdaq: HLIT) 11% HIGHER; reports Q3 EPS of $0.17, e
Fund positions of 1.0% or greater can be found each week in the right margin of the blog, under the label cloud and recent comments areas; I highlight weekly the larger position changes.
Being a long only fund, via Marketocracy rules, the only hedges to the downside I have are cash or buying short ETFs. I cannot short individual equities.
About 2-3 months ago the "consumer is back because gas fell $0.50" trade was hot and heavy among the hedge funds. I was shaking my head at the time, but watching opportunity after opportunity pass me by, as anything consumer related was flying up... remember, reality is not reality in the stock market... perception is reality. The perception was there was either no recession or the recession was so mild and everything will be fine; all the consumer needs is for gas to drop 50 cents and we'll be back to 2006 and everything will be honky dory. So, trying to generate any sort of return in a ma...
Fund positions of 1.0% or greater can be found each week in the right margin of the blog, under the label cloud and recent comments areas; I highlight weekly the larger position changes.
Being a long only fund, via Marketocracy rules, the only hedges to the downside I have are cash or buying short ETFs. I cannot short individual equities.
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BWLD
BWLD
About Buffalo Wild Wings Inc.
- Answers.com
On May 26, 2006, I 
climbed 20.5% to $82.4 million up from $68.3 million. Same store sales increased 8.3% at company owned restaurants and 5.9% at franchised restaurants. Earnings per share for the quarter 
