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From the Blogosphere
An Uncomfortable Choice
An Uncomfortable ChoiceAugust 28, 2009
By John Mauldin An Uncomfortable ChoiceWhat Were We Thinking?Frugality is the New NormalAnd Then We Face the Real ProblemArgentina, Brazil, Uruguay, New Orleans, Detroit, and More<>We have arrived at this particular economic moment in time by the choices we have made, which now leave us with choices in our future that will be neither easy, convenient, nor comfortable. Sometimes there are just no good choices, only less-bad ones. In this week’s letter we look at what some of those choices might be, and ponder their possible consequences. Are we headed <><><><><><><>< /><><><><>< /><>< /><>< /><><><>< /><><>< /><><><><><>< /><><>< />< /><><>< />< /><><>< />< />< /><>< /><><>< /><>< /><><><>< /><>< /><><>< /><><><>< /><>< /><>< /><><>< /><><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><><><><>< />< />< /><><>< />< />< />< />< />< /><><><><>< /><>< /><><><><><><><><><><>< />< />< />< /><><>< /><>< />< /><><>< /><><>< />< /><>< /><><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< />...
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The Statistical Recovery, Part Two
The Statistical Recovery, Part Two
August 14, 2009
By John Mauldin The Statistical Recovery, Part Two
A Recovery Statisticians Can Love
A Few Thoughts on the Housing Market
Some Thoughts from Maine
Tulsa, Birthdays, Weddings, and Paul McCartney<>A few weeks ago I first used the term “statistical recovery” to describe the nature of today’s economic environment. Today we are going to further explore that concept, as it is important to have a real understanding of what is happening. This coming “recovery” is not going to feel like a typical one, and those expecting a “V”-shaped recovery are simpl<><><><><><><><><>< /><><><><><><><><><><><><><>< /><><><><>< /><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>< /><><><>< /><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>< /><><><><>< /><><><>< />< /><>< /><><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< />...
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Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast
The Efficient Market Hypothesis, according to Shiller, is one of the most remarkable errors in the history of economic thought. EMH should be consigned to the dustbin of history. We need to stop teaching it, and brainwashing the innocent. Rob Arnott tells a lovely story of a speech he was giving to some 200 finance professors. He asked how many of them taught EMH - pretty much everyone’s hand was up. Then he asked how many of them believed it. Only two hands stayed up! <>And we wonder why funds and banks, full of the best and brightest, have made such a mess of things. Part of the reason is ...
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The Statistical Recovery
A lot of bullish commentators are talking about a recovery being in the works, and they may very well be right. But it is not going to look like any recovery worthy of the name. This week we look at what I will call The Statistical Recovery. But first we take a look at what China is doing, as we continue our look at the rest of the world and ponder whether it is time to brace ourselves for an extended bout with the Muddle Through Economy*. (And yes, there is an asterisk.) <>Quickly, and importantly, tonight we are releasing the first in a new series of quarterly Conversations entitled <>Geopoli...
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Europe on the Brink
Europe on the Brink
And Then There Was Leverage
Too Big To Save
Those Wild and Crazy Swiss
A Positive Third Quarter?
New York and MaineWe have avoided Armageddon, at least for now. The cost to the US taxpayer has been a few trillion. Some in the media are loudly announcing the end of the recession. But we are not out of the
woods yet. There are a few more bumps in the road. Actually, some of them are quite steep hills. As big as the subprime problem? Maybe. <>When asked a few weeks ago what was my biggest short-term concern, I quickly replied, “European banks have the potential to create si<>< /><><>< /><>< /><><>< />< />< />< />< /><>< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< /><>< />< />< />< />< /><>< />< />< /><>< />< />< />< />< />< /><>< /><>< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< /><>< /><><>< />< />< />< />< /><>< />< />< />< /><>< />< />< />< />< />< /><>< />< />< />< />< />< />< /><><>< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< /><>< />< />< />< /><>< /><>< />< />< />< />< />< />< /><><>< /><>< />< />< />< /><>< /><>< />< />< /><>< />< />< />< />< /><>< /><>< /><>< />< />< />< /><><>< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< /><>< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< /><><>< />< />< />< />< /><>< /><>< />< />< />< /><>< />< />< />< />< /><>< /><>< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< /><>< />< />< />< />< />< /><>< />< />< />< />< /><>< />< />< />< /><>< /><><>< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< /><>< />< />< />< /><>< />< />< />< /><>< />< />< />< />< /><>< />< />< />< />< />< /><><>< />< />< />< />< />< />< /><>< />< />< />< />< />< />< />< /><>< />< />< /><><>< />< /><><><><>< /><><><>< />< /><>< /><><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< /><>< />...
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