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From the Blogosphere
Bookkeeping: Closing Monsanto (MON)
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I am closing Monsanto (MON) at this time as the chart is not correlating with the solid fundamentals. I will book about a 3-4% loss on this last batch and we'll revisit the position later when the chart firms up.
 (just realized Mosaic reports after the bell today - so this move concurrently helps remove "lemming knee jerk reaction" risk in agricultural group)
At this point, I am going to (big leap of faith) assume we won't be crashing and am trying to run my mainline strategy of long/short stocks. This strategy is actually nearly impossible to run in a market where every stock is blessed or...
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Home Sales Surge 5.1%... err Drop 4.6%... err... umm..
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I guess it's all in the spin. Despite horrific year over year drops in home values, despite record low mortgage rates, despite all the King's Horses and all the King's Men being thrown at the housing market, unit sales FELL 4.6% year over year. That's the truest measure for a very seasonal purchase but that's not the Kool Aid spin today, since sales "increased" over January's levels. Makes for good headlines. Oh well, 5% mortgages are not driving the "right" amount of buying, so 4% it will be! And if not 4% - then 2%. If not 2% we'll pay you to take a mortgage! I mean that is effecti...
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Bookkeeping: Weekly Changes to Fund Positions Year 2, Week 33
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Year 2, Week 33 Major Position Changes
<>To see historic weekly fund changes click here OR the label at the bottom of this entry entitled 'fund positions'.
Cash: 53.8% (vs 68.3% last week)
26 long bias: 32.5% (vs 26.9% last week)
12 short bias: 13.7% (vs 15.8% last week)
38 positions (vs 40 last week)
<>
Weekly thoughts
While the indexes finished the week with little fanfare versus the prior week close, we had a lot of churn on the week, highlighted by the market's excitement with Uncle Ben Bernanke dropping US dollars from the heavens - yet again. This has been the solution since August 2007 with var...
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Bookkeeping: Selling Most of Housing Exposure
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I have 3 main plays on housing - the Federal Reserve simply repeated today (with more force) what it already signaled; if we need to get mortgage rates to 0% to get you to buy a home, we will do it. I don't care if you don't have a job, you WILL buy a home. We will pay for it as a government if we have to. Just move in.... on us.
I own Lennar (LEN) only as a trading vehicle and I am exiting the vast majority of what remains in the $9.50 area - taking it down to a 0.2% stake with this 12% pop. We were buying this at $6 just a few weeks ago. New home building is a silly thesis to play but ...
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Bookkeeping: Some Profit Taking
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I remain bullish as long as we hold S&P 741, for a move to S&P 780 - that said we've come a long way in a very short period of time so I am willing to take some profits here and see if we consolidate a bit. I've essentially removed all my "bullish" ETF trades - the Ultrashorts I was shorting and the long ETFs I had held. These have been my dominant investment (I use that word loosely) the past few weeks when the market is making such hectic and extreme swings. (I don't break out the ETF trading piece by piece because for me it is all hedging techniques rather than any sort of investing)
In...
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