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Filed under: McDonald's (MCD), Campbell Soup (CPB), Hershey Co (HSY), Hormel Foods (HRL), Stocks to Buy, Recession

We don't expect to find investment advice from opinion columns, but New York Times columnist Frank Rich unleashed a quartet to those willing to read between the lines in his recent piece "Herbert Hoover Lives."

Here's the money quote (no pun intended) from the theater critic turned political pundit: "What are Americans still buying? Big Macs, Campbell's soup, Hershey's chocolate and Spam -- the four food groups of the apocalypse."

The best time to buy is when we have a negativity bubble. This great nation of ours is in a deep pessimism. We have not seen consumer sentiment this low for decades (see following chart).

click to enlarge

Hershey (HSY) June 16, 2008 close: $35.89 /share
52-week range: $33.54 [Jan. 25, 2008] - $51.78 [June 18, 2007]
Dividend = $0.2975 quarterly = 3.32% current yield

Hershey shares jumped up not too long ago when M&M Mars Candy Company agreed to a buyout. Shares were down big today after a Hershey's Board member seemed to indicate they were not looking to sell at this time.

Deutsche Bank is out with a negative call on Hershey (HSY) reiterating its HOLD opinion based on challenging fundamentals including competition and input cost volatility, a premium valuation, and difficulty of the changing US chocolate market. Although long term it believes the Trust will change its strategic approach, it doesn't think any action will occur short term.

The firm highlights several scenarios, noting most point to downside risk:

This article is a reprint of my February 15, 2008 RealMoney column

Hershey’s (HSY) stock has been anything but sweet for investors in recent times. The shares are off more than a third from the 52-week high and trade barely above half their value from the 2005 peak. From higher costs to increased competition, from product recalls to production disruption, you name the problem and Hershey’s has probably seen it. Throw in the Hershey Foundation’s voting control (and ability to block the company’s sale or merger ) and it is no wonder investors seem bitter.