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Nokia (NOK) this morning said out loud what everyone in the mobile phone business kind of knew already: demand in 2009 is going to be down from 2008. This is an industry that had become accustomed to seeing unit growth in the 10% plus range; to see the industry’s most important player forecast a down year is a shocker, even if you suspected that something like this was inevitable.

Nokia’s warning is weighing heavily on a variety of players in industry: other phone companies; wireless carriers; chip makers; and even contract manufacturers. Here’s a look at the damage:

Longbow Research analyst Shawn M. Harrison offers this morning a “read-through,” as he calls it, on IBM’s (IBM) Q3 pre-announcement from last night, and finds evidence in IBM’s lower-than-expected revenue to support a dim view of contract manufacturers. Writes Harrison:

Citigroup’s Craig Ellis, who a month ago made wholesale estimate cuts for the semiconductor stocks he covers, today brought numbers down yet again.

“In the past three weeks, snowballing signs of product sales softness, freshly eroding macro indicators and dour field checks portend even greater near-term downside and a shallower mid-’09 recovery than our estimates reflect,” he wrote this morning. Ellis says he concluded that further estimate cuts and target reductions were needed.

Yesterday, analysts at RBC Capital turned cautious on IT spending, and chopped estimates on a host of hardware and software stocks. Today, they took the next logical step, and reduced their expectations on contract electronics manufacturers.

Cowen’s Louis Miscioscia this morning trimmed his estimates on the contract electronics manufacturers Flextronics (FLEX), Jabil (JBL) and Sanmina-SCI (SANM) following a recent series of warnings from companies like Corning (GLW), Dell (DELL), Ingram Micro (IM), Nokia (NOK), Nortel (NT) and others.

Miscioscia says Cowen’s checks find IT spending still holding up well in the U.S., but with Europe weaker. And he notes that there are concerns that “if the stock market doesn’t stabilize soon, what happens on Wall Street will alter the buying plans on Main Street.”