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WHY YOU SHOULD SHORT THE RETAILERS SIG

71%

-87.11% in 391 days <> I am recommending the sell of the retailing sector. Why? The reason is simple, no one is buying anything right now. When was the last time you heard of a friend, neighbor, or colleague bought a new car? I tell you that it is obvious all over America (if not the world) put discretionary spending on perma hold a couple of weeks ago. You can rest assured that there isn't a retailer in America (even Walmart) that will have a great quarter. <> Ever since Bush went on prime time consequences..... the retail market has come to a screeching halt that is only slightly less frozen than the cr... Continue reading »

SIG- Proving Marriage is no safe haven SIG

71%

+11.97% in 3 days (closed on 10/12/08) Signet's future doesn't look very bright to me.  Although they should get a boost from their gold inventory because of the flight to gold that is occurring it won't be enough.  As Main street gets weaker so goes Signet.  New couples will not be awash in cash as they have been for the last bunch of years so Signet will have trouble passing on their higher priced goods.  This will result in a smaller gross margins.  I don't see any reason to be loading up on SIG here.  Maybe in the low single digits but definitely not here.  I bet this quarter will be dismal at best.  Can you imagine someone ... Continue reading »

Signet (Kay / Jared Jeweler) : Tough times ahead for this retail segment SIG

49%

-117.60% in 574 days Signet owns Kay Jeweler and Jared Galleria of Jewelry. This is an ADR of a firm based in the UK. 75% of sales are from the US. This retailer may have even more problems than Tiffany's and other jewelers in a protracted, rough economy for a few reasons: 1. Lower-end customer more at risk for unemployment, less discretional income, and significantly impacted by decreasing wealth effect with home price decreases, shutoff HELOC's, etc. 2. Jared appears to have an expensive lease structure for retail locations, judging only from a few extremely prominent market locations I have seen... Continue reading »

From the Blogosphere

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: VZ, CHS, DLTR, RGC ...

Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Analyst initiations Analyst upgrades: <> Jefferies upgraded Ansys (NASDAQ: ANSS) shares to Buy from Hold following the company's reduced guidance as it now believes estimates are much more achievable. Despite the upgrade, the firm lowered its target price to $25 from $29. Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of Signet Jewelers (NYSE: SIG) to Buy from Hold on expectations the company will benefit from a capacity reduction in U.S. jewelry retailing. <>Thomas Weisel upgraded Omnicare (NYSE: OCR) to Overweight from Market Weight citin... Continue reading »

Potential Short Setups

34%

The darn REITs are in free fall and there is no let up, same for Capital One (COF), same for the newspapers, same for the casinos, most retailers.... and we apparently missed the most recent chance at Harley Davidson (HOG). Hard to "pile on" such death spiral set ups - at least for me. Here are some of the names I am considering... Signet Jewelers (SIG) which we've been discussing for a while here - another consumer play; the main issue for my purposes is lack of volume - only 200K a day which makes it hard for me to get in and out of. But it's now bounced to resistance. If this one worked... Continue reading »

Bookkeeping: Closing Geron (GERN) and Amazon.com (AMZN) Shorts

34%

I have to give these two stocks credit; they have held up well - even in today's mess of a tape. It appears it's going to take some serious market weakness to see more of a downfall. These are "technical scalps" (short term in and out trades) and one worked out ok - Geron (GERN) and the other did not - Amazon.com (AMZN). Net of the two I lost more in Amazon than I won in Geron but it's no major damage. (the NASDAQ has been a favorite of the hedge funds the past 6-7 sessions) [Feb 4: Short Amazon.com] Amazon started in $62.60s [Jan 30: Short Geron] Geron started in $7.80s Out of <>Amazon.co... Continue reading »

Pondering Signet Jewelers (SIG) as a Short

34%

Since I missed Zale's (ZLC) journey to sub $1-ish [Jan 23: Where You Won't Shop in 2009], I am pondering Signet Jewelers (SIG) as a proxy. Very weird action today - it is up 14% based on a cost cutting report that happened yesterday - but the report happened in the morning. So the stock did not react yesterday but reacted today. (I assume short covering today) <> Signet Jewelers (SIG.L), the Anglo-American jewellery retailer, reported on Thursday a sharp fall in fourth-quarter underlying sales and said it would outline plans to cut costs and generate more cash in March. <>The 1,959-store group, ... Continue reading »

Bookkeeping: Selling some American Science & Engineering (ASEI) on Fantastic Earnings

34%

I am cutting American Science & Engineering (ASEI) from a 2.0% stake to 1.2% on some fantastic earnings. This stock has been asleep of late as people run into commodities/tech/China. Just goes to show, this market is about what the hot thesis is not what companies are executing. The stock is up 8% this morning and hitting recent highs in the $82s; I'm selling in the mid $82s and looking to rebuy lower. If the stock breaks north of $84, I'll pay up to ride the next leg up as this would be a new high. Love the gross margin expansion - that's money in the bank. <><>The Company reported <>record revenu... Continue reading »

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