Chinese media is exploding. I like the fundamentals as well as the fact that this company practically has a monopoly on all major digital media space in China. The only conis the shady management and the opaque company reporting which always adds to your apprehension when looking at a foreign company like this.
I have been a fan of Focus Media Holding (FMCN) for some time. About a year back I posted that this was a great way to get some China exposure and play the Olympics at the same time. Problem was, I think I was about a year late. The market had already been pricing that in for some time, and the stock has been performing pretty poorly ever since.
An earthquake in China shook the stock and then the weak market dragged it down even farther. The short interest in FMCN has gone up dramatically during this time as trend followers hopped on board and the market took a turn for the worse. Their are
Minyanville's Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. Here he discusses some players in the tech sector. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
SuccessFactors (NASDAQ: SFSF): The stock prices secondary at $11.80 and is holding pretty tough. I'm watching this one pretty closely and was hoping for some post-secondary weakness to possibly add a starter here. A pretty good balance sheet just got better, but I guess the q
"The Olympics have long been a boon to stock markets of host countries," notes Tony Sagami, a leading global stock advisor with a noted specialty in Asian markets.
In his Asia Stock Alert newsletter, he notes, "I believe the chief beneficiaries of the Olympic Games will be consumer and travel-related stocks. And within these sectors, I've chosen six stocks poised to bring home Olympic gold from Beijing."
"We saw a 19% gain in the Spanish stock market in the 12 months before the 1
3/18 - "The market overreacted, in our view...Our DCF-based fair value for FMCN’s mobile business is around US$4-5 per ADS, implying 20-25x our forecast ’08 earnings for mobile operation...Under the worst case scenario, even if we completely remove the mobile operation, our DCF-based fair value would imply only a 5-10% drop, vs. a 27% share price decline yesterday."
"At the current price, FMCN is trading at mid-10x our
forecast ’08 earnings (vs. 20-30x for other Chinese
advertising leaders and the lowest level since IPO), with
a PEG ratio of 0.3 based on our forecast operating profit
CAGR ...
3/17 - "A China state TV channel aired a program last weekend covering (among other items) alleged “spamming” of (i.e., pushing SMS advertisements to) mobile phone customers by Focus Wireless."
"1) Focus Wireless accounted for 9% of Focus’ revenue last quarter and, we assume, a similar portion of EBIT...2) We view the risk of Focus Wireless losing its operating license as low, given the mobile services companies such as Linktone and Hurray! kept their licenses despite China Mobile fining them for various policy infringements. 3) We believe a more plausible worst-case scenario is one in whi...
With the upcoming olympics, FMCN is in the driver's seat to benefit from the flock of companies that will wanna increase their visibility during that time. They are the leader in their sector in China, where consumption is increasing thanks to ever growing middle class with good puchasing power. Good recent acquisitions. Good entry point after correction, the stock remained strong in Jan with high institutional ownership. reasonable P/E ratio and strong growth in fundamentals.
Focus Media is well known success story in China. It's huge network of LCD display advertising can be seen everywhere. Recent china sell-off provides a great opportunity to get in at discounted price. Focus media is becoming increasingly diversified with recent acquisitions and investments. In addition, there has been talk of spin-offs of some of its divisions. Finally, watch out for stimulus provided by 2008 Beijing olympics hype as this could provide a nice short-term run-up later this year.
My China play, and a good one too. FMCN is a fast growing advertising company specialized in out of home advertising, elevator ads, electronic bill boards, etc. Chart above its 50 day MA, and there's no way but up at the moment. Should be one of the few companies that should withstand future Chinese corrections, due to its growth.
short term bearish on FMCN if it can't hold around 80. if not, you're going to see a sick price drop. just a simple technical correction is due here. give it time and i'm sure it'll come back. stock looks healthy, and correction is healthy!
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About Focus Media Holding Ltd
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I have been a fan of Focus Media Holding (FMCN) for some time. About a year back I 
Minyanville's 
"The Olympics have long been a boon to stock markets of host countries," notes 
