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Todd Sullivan's Blog Posts
 MO
Altria's Last Legal Hurdle Should Be Settled This Fall
09/05/08
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 From the Wall Street JournalU.S. v. Philip Morris: Topping the list is United States v. Philip Morris, an appeal of the decade-long civil racketeering case against the tobacco industry. Philip Morris, now known as Altria Group (MO), is challenging the 2006 verdict which found that it and six othe...
WMT
How Wal-Mart Really Beats Expectations
09/05/08
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This is a classic: just last month when Wal-Mart (WMT) came in at 3% comps and people were inexplicably disappointed and then guided for 1% to 2% for August, I said, "Anyone want to bet Wal-Mart is lowering projections to avoid the current scenario next month? Now Wall St. will lower "estimates", Wal...
DOW
Dow's Q3 vs. the Price of Oil
09/04/08
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Now that August is in the books, let's look at where we are and update some of my previous thoughts: In the call, the following exchange was had:Jeffrey Zekauskas - JPMorgan: "Good morning. On average shouldn't your raw material costs be down sequentially in the third quarter? Natural gas has gone fr...
USO
Time to Get Back Into Oil?
09/04/08
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With the current price roughly 25% off its high, it is time to put oil back on the radar screen. Watch what Boone Pickens has to say. I sold my (USO) position in May for $106.85, a 140% gain in 16 months (purchased for $44 in Jan. 2007). It now sits at $89, 16% below the sale price....
BGP
The Real Reason Borders' Stock Has Surpassed its Target
09/03/08
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I was emailed a research note on Borders (BGP) by a reader and based on that, we can take closer look at FY 2009. Deutsche Bank - Equity ResearchBorders Group {Ticker: BGP.N, Closing Price: 6.55, Target Price: 6.00, Recommendation: Hold}...
BGP
Borders Improves Results Quarter After Quarter
08/26/08
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The really good news here is the reduction of debt by almost 40% YOY. From the release: Borders Group, Inc. (BGP) today reported results for the second quarter, ended Aug. 2, 2008. The company generated a second quarter loss from continuing operations of $11.3 million or $0.19 per share, which repre...
AXP
WFC
What Did Buffett Buy: American Express or Wells Fargo?
08/25/08
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After Buffett teased the investing world Friday saying he bought more of either Wells Fargo (WFC) or American Express (AXP), folks are speculating as to which one he bought. I was under the impression Buffett and Bekshire (BRK.a) had virtually tapped out their ability to buy more American Express sha...
JCP
TGT
Walmart Continues to Impress
08/15/08
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It now appears after gloomy reports from Target (TGT), JC Penny (JCP), and Macy's (M) that Wal-Mart (WMT) may just be the only large retailer actually growing. Wal-Mart (WMT) reported its sales and earnings yesterday, for the quarter ended July 31, 2008. Net sales for the second quarter of fiscal y...
PEIX
VSE
Growth in Corn Harvest Means Good News for Ethanol Producers
08/13/08
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Good news for ethanol producers like ADM (ADM), Verasun (VSE) and Pacifc Ethanol (PEIX). The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast that farmers will harvest 12.3 billion bushels of corn, up more than 570 million bushels from last month's estimate of 11.7 billion. That's down 6% from last year's rec...
DOW
Dow: As Oil Fluctuates, What Will Be in Q3?
08/13/08
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Let's look at the information gleamed from Dow chemical's (DOW) Q2's release and call and do a little projection for Q3. In the call the following exchange was had: Jeffrey Zekauskas - JPMorgan Good morning. On average shouldn't your raw material costs be down sequentially in the third quarter? Na...
OC
Owens Corning Beats: Housing Downturn Won't Destroy Earnings
08/03/08
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One things says it all, "sales growth in our global composites business continued to be solid." Back in February I said that one ought to expect a storm or two this year and that the $240 million EBIT the company predicted at the time was too conservative. (Call Transcript)Owens Corning (OC) said it ...
MO
What the MSM Failed to Tell You About Altria's Earnings
07/31/08
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The chimps in the MSM are saying "Altria's (MO) profits fall". Well, if you spun off 75% or your business, yeah, they would. But the 25% that is left did better this year than last ,and that is all that matters. Here is what the headlines out there today failed to tell you:...
OC
Owens Corning: Showing Benefits of Move Away from Housing & Into Composites
07/30/08
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Looks like the St. Gobain deal will be paying off in spades for Owens Corning (OC). Owens acquired the Gous-Khrustalny, Russia, production facility as part of its 2007 acquisition of Saint-Gobain's composites businesses. OC announced that it will more than double the production capacity of its glas...
GS
SHW
Sherwin Williams: Sit Tight, Ignore the Analysts
07/22/08
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I read some of Goldman Sachs' (GS) research report on Sherwin Williams (SHW) yesterday: Although the company’s long-term growth potential remains intact, we are cautious that the cost and demand headwinds will continue challenging SHW in the near term: (1) our economists expect existing home ...
HOG
Harley's Beat: Was High Crude the Buffer?
07/17/08
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So, maybe it would seem high gas prices are providing a buffer for Harley Davidson (HOG) against the economy? Harley-Davidson (HOG) reported Q2 EPS of $0.95 this morning, 19 cents better than estimates. Revenue for the quarter was $1.57 billion vs. consensus of $1.4 billion....
GS
JPM
Wells Fargo: Positive News From a Bank?
07/17/08
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Just on Tuesday I said, "It is getting to the point where you have Goldman (GS), JP Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) as the cream of the crop in financials.." Wishing now I had listened to myself and bought more... Wells Fargo reported yesterday and:...
DOW
BRK.A
Buying Dow for a Better Deal than Warren Got
07/12/08
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So, after the news of the past couple days, I have added to the position in Dow Chemical (DOW). At prices averaging $32, even we tripled the position in Dow yesterday and today.Current yield, 5.25% and rock solid safe. Think about it: Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A) Warren Buffett only got 8.5% on his $...
DOW
BRK.A
Buying Dow for a Better Deal than Warren Buffett Got
07/12/08
—
So, after the news of the past couple days, I have added to the position in Dow Chemical (DOW). At prices averaging $32, even we tripled the position in Dow yesterday and today.Current yield, 5.25% and rock solid safe. Think about it: Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A) Warren Buffett only got 8.5% on his $...
SHLD
Value Investing in Sears: Avoid Current Perceptions & Look Forward
06/26/08
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Bill Parcells had a great quote that has always stuck with me. He was asked about his team (that at the time was 2-6 but had lost some close games) whether or not he felt the team was better than its record. His reply, "You are what you are". If you are 2-6 that is what you are, nothing more and ...
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