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Michael Shulman's Blog Posts
 SONO
World Series trade #5: Sonosite (SONO)
11/01/09
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Filed under: Options, Stocks to BuyThe Yankees are led by a core of four men -- Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, and Mariano Rivera -- who all came to the club in 1995.
They're no spring chickens, that's for sure. Thankfully, the players are supported by a great organization, which includes...
Reason #10: Take a good look around
10/25/09
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Filed under: Economic data, RecessionDo you see a rebound?
The Mall of America would be a great practice field for the Minnesota Vikings, fall and winter clothes are already 40% off at Macy's, and the Palms in Vegas is mailing me coupons.
Recently, I went out to eat with some friends: One owns a con...
Reason #9: The Fed can't do it either
10/25/09
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Filed under: Federal Reserve, RecessionHistorically, the Fed has lowered interest rates to spur spending and investment.
Well, the Fed has already cut interest rates to banks down to essentially zero. The media are screaming about potential inflation due to the trillion dollars the Fed put into the ...
Reason #8: Uncle Sam can't bail us out
10/25/09
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Filed under: RecessionIn the past, the government has increased spending and cut taxes to spur spending during times of economic crisis.
However, Uncle Sam is now in so much debt that this is no longer a serious option. And it looks like we are going to spend another $900 billion-plus on health care ...
INTC
Reason #7: Businesses aren't spending
10/25/09
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Filed under: RecessionBusinesses do not see a turnaround in 2010. Even with public figures talking up the economy (and who can blame them, it's practically in their job description) businesses are not listening. If consumers aren't spending, why should businesses?
For example, Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) s...
Reason #6: Excess capacity
10/25/09
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Filed under: RecessionExcess capacity is everywhere -- we have more than enough people, factories, stores, and so on to meet current demand.
Want to buy an indoor mall? You can get one in North Myrtle Beach for $3.3 million -- less than the previous value of many homes in that area.Continue reading ...
Reason #5: The credit crunch will continue
10/24/09
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Filed under: RecessionBy year-end 2009, we will see a more than $4 trillion pullback in credit lines. And we are a country that runs on credit. In fact, the entire growth in consumer spending from 1997 to 2008 was paid for with home equity lines and credit cards.
Credit standards are already impossi...
Reason #3: Consumers are afraid to spend money
10/24/09
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Filed under: RecessionA fear of a loss of income will continue to squelch consumer spending. Most people I know are fearful about their futures -- i.e., losing their jobs or seeing a cut in commissions, profits, or wages. This means they will hang on to their pennies in 2010.
Bottom line: Consumers ...
Reason #2: The jobless recovery
10/24/09
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Filed under: Employees, RecessionThe pundits on CNBC get all giggly when we lose "only" 550,000 jobs -- a true sign of the times. Uber analyst Meredith Whitney, one of the few people on Wall Street who has been worth listening to during the past three years, is forecasting 13% unemployment in 2010 or...
Reason #1: Dramatic loss of wealth
10/24/09
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Filed under: Housing, RecessionPeople not only feel poorer, they are poorer. Personal wealth will continue to decline in 2010, as home prices fall even further, fueled by a wave of 7 million homes that will go into foreclosure in the next 12 to 18 months. And foreclosure rates will remain above histo...
10 reasons the economy won't recover in 2010
10/24/09
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Filed under: RecessionThink the economy is recovering? Think again.
Forget the noise and statistics thrown around by the politicos and pundits. We are not at the end of this recession -- we are in the middle of it.
This will not be a V-shaped recession and recovery, folks. It is a U-shaped one at b...
Sign #10: An eerie similarity
09/20/09
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Filed under: ForecastsThe eeriest reason you should be wary of a pullback in October is the similarity between the chart of the rally that began March 9 and the 1937-1938 rally, which was followed by a sharp pullback.
They are practically identical -- seriously, check it out.
This could be a harbinge...
Sign #9: Short covering and money managers looking to bank profits
09/20/09
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Filed under: RecessionTwo key elements of the market's rise -- short-sellers covering their positions and money managers looking for quick profits -- are waning, reducing buy-side volume.
This will eventually impair the market's ability to sustain itself as more shorts are entering the market and mo...
Sign #8: Light volume
09/20/09
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Filed under: Economic dataMarket volume is so light that many technicians do not see the rise in the indices as "real." They want to see increased buying volume to confirm another upward leg in the rally.
While volume may increase in the short term, it still will be considered light, as many investor...
Sign #5: Earnings will disappoint
09/19/09
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Filed under: Earnings reports, S and P 500The market is radically overvalued based on current earnings. Historical norms say the S&P 500 should be at 850, not 1,065.
And the depressed economy will lead to depressed earnings next year, which means the market will be even more overvalued than it is...
Sign #4: No positive catalysts on the horizon
09/19/09
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Filed under: China, CommoditiesThe current drivers of the market -- commodity speculation, green shoots euphoria, and enthusiasm over China thanks to fabricated Chinese economic data -- will be played out in the next few weeks.
Absent these drivers, there are no positive catalysts left to underpin a ...
Sign #3: The banks will lead us down again
09/19/09
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Filed under: ForecastsThe banks led the markets down, and then led it back up. And when they announce earnings in October, they are almost positively going to include comments about 2010 that will help send the market back down.
The banks still have trillions of dollars in toxic assets and increasing...
Sign #2: W-shaped recession
09/19/09
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Filed under: Forecasts, Economic data, RecessionWithout consumer spending picking up drastically, the economy is facing a W-shaped recession/recovery -- not a V-shaped one.
We are currently climbing the second leg of W due to rising expectations about the economy. But the economy is not improving -- ...
Sign #1: The consumer is down and out
09/19/09
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Filed under: Consumer experience, Economic dataThe driver of the U.S. economy is the consumer -- consumer spending accounts for 70% of the nation's GDP -- and the consumer is down and out.
Americans have lost 40% of their wealth in the past two years; more than $4 trillion in credit lines will have v...
Ten signs an October market crash is coming
09/19/09
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Filed under: ForecastsThe talk of the financial town right now is how the market has entered into a recovery period. Gives you a nice, toasty feeling, doesn't it?
Well, not so fast. October is a historically temperamental time on Wall Street and, while some people believe the market is going to keep ...
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