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trackseekingalpha's Blog Posts


PETS   BIDZ   Bidz.com: Don't Overlook the Value of E-Commerce Investment 12/03/09   —  We are attracted to the Internet and e-commerce space given favorable long-term secular trends. In October, for example, we noted that we have a slight bias toward asset light, cash generating Internet companies such as Youbet (UBET), PetMed Express (PETS), and Bidz (BIDZ). We also relayed data and i...
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DD   MON   Dow Agriculture in a Good Place 12/03/09   —  Dow Ag (DOW) seems to be at the center of the Ag world now with partnerships with both Monsanto (MON) and now DuPont (DD). From Dairy Mail...
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Puma More Tempting than Adidas 12/03/09   —  Stock price: €38 ($57.34) Conclusion: The stock looks fairly valued based on our valuation range of €38-€42 per share. Uncertainty regarding Reebok should prevent short term re-rating. We prefer to invest in Puma (PMMAF.PK) which trades at a similar 15x P/E multiple based on 2010 estimates....
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GOOG   DIS   Nathan's Is a Solid Pick 12/03/09   —  Think back to the summer. Every backyard barbecue comes with at least 2 staples: Hamburgers and hot dogs. So why is it, that when you drive into town for fast food, you can find half a dozen burger joints but are lucky to find one that serves a decent hot dog? I had never really thought much about th...
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DSGX   Descartes Systems Q3 In-Line with Analysts, Strong Outlook Ahead 12/03/09   —  On Tuesday, Descartes Systems (DSGX) reported Q3 2010 earnings with revenue up 11% to $18.9 million from $17.0 million reported for previous year Q3, and 2% higher than revenue reported for Q2 2010. Revenue was essentially in-line with consensus forecasts which were $18.5 million for the quarter.Adju...
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NFLX   Netflix Looks Expensive, Yet Still Impressive 12/03/09   —  In a recent post, I calculated an intrinsic value for Netflix (NFLX) at $43 per share. This assumed 22% growth this year. In its third quarter, Netflix posted profits that were up 48% year-over-year on a revenue increase of 24%. Gross margins remained relatively constant, but net margins grew largely...
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ORS   The Big 'If' for Orsus Xelent 12/03/09   —  Last week, Orsus Xelent (ORS) reported its third quarter results. The headline referred to an 8% year-to-date drop in annual revenues. But this is an exceedingly useless headline, for several reasons.First of all, the first two quarters of the year have already been reported. As such, it would make m...
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ERTS   WMT   Electronic Arts Sees Big Put Action 12/03/09   —  By Chris.McKhannNews of Wal-Mart (WMT) cutting videogame prices drove Electronic Arts (ERTS) price down Wednesday and fueled some options action. ...
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3 Alternative Gold ETFs for Times of Global Uncertainty 12/03/09   —  In recent months, gold’s rise has been attributable primarily to continued weakness in the U.S. dollar, with the yellow metal rising as investors looked to move their reserve holdings from the greenback to hard currency. But over the last week, precious metals have been given another boost as gener...
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Five Country ETFs Off Their Lows, But Not Past Their Highs 12/03/09   —  The financial crisis dragged world exchange traded funds (ETFs) down, but investors are now coming back and stock markets are thriving again. There are still plenty of funds off their highs and presenting buying opportunities. Investors tend to bid up equity prices too high when an economy is expandi...
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BRK.A   BNI   Will Buffett’s Railroad Bubble Derail the Transportation ETF? 12/03/09   —  Despite the fact that shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) have lagged far behind broad market benchmarks this year, the events of the last month have shown that the investment community still hangs on Warren Buffett’s every word and tries to draft his every move. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway ann...
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End of the Year Bargain Hunting 12/03/09   —  This is the time of year when many investors sell lagging stocks to claim capital losses that can be applied to capital gains to reduce taxes. The prices of some securities may therefore come under abnormal selling pressure for a time and fall below what company fundamentals would warrant. Consequent...
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GBG   Great Basin Gold: Follow the Flood for Fortune 12/03/09   —  <font>Introduction</font> <font><font>Timing is critical for making investment decisions. Sometimes the timing seems so fortuitous as many factors coalesce into a critical juncture. Such is the case for emerging gold producer, Great Basin Gold (GBG), to be commencing production durin...
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RTP   VALE   BHP / Rio Tinto JV Makes Sense for Both Companies 12/03/09   —  BHP Billiton (BHP), which is featured in both our Growth and Income Portfolios, failed to consummate a marriage with Rio Tinto (RTP) last year. But a subsequently proposed joint venture between the pair, the second- and third-largest iron ore producers in the world, could be nearing reality. The part...
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GOOG   YHOO   Yahoo: As Share Price Lags Peers, Time to Lever Up and Shrink Equity 12/03/09   —  Yahoo!'s (YHOO) shares are down 4% in the past month versus a 10%, 8%, and 7%, improvement for Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT) and the S&P 500, respectively. The shares are cheap, trading at a low 5x 2010 EBITDA versus 13x for Google and lower than traditional media and entertainment companies th...
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NEM   AUY   Silver Could Rise Even if Gold Falls 12/03/09   —  You don’t have to go too far these days to hear someone talk about how high gold prices could go. The topic is fiercely debated in the mainstream financial media at the moment – especially for investors who are late to the party. But are they really late, or is the “party” just getting start...
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KMX   MKL   Markel Corp's Acquisitions Resemble Berkshire Hathaway's 12/03/09   —  Markel Corp. (MKL), which is a property and casualty insurance company that specializes in specialty insurance products such as wind and earthquake exposed commercial properties, high valued motorcycles, personal, watercrafts, even horse related risks, is becoming more and more like Berkshire Hathawa...
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IMO   NPV   Imperial Oil Attains Rare Distinction in Cumulative Production 12/03/09   —  Analyzing third quarter results released October 29, we keep estimated Net Present Value (NPV) at US$48 a share for buy-recommended Imperial Oil (IMO). On that basis, IMO stock offers unlevered appreciation potential of 27% to a McDep Ratio of 1.0 where stock price would equal NPV. Latest results exc...
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NPV   HGT   Hugoton Royalty Trust Distribution Trends Up 12/03/09   —  Analyzing third quarter results filed as Form 10-Q with the Securities and Exchange Commission on October 27, we reaffirm estimated Net Present Value (NPV) of US$23 a share for buy-recommended Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT). On that basis, unlevered appreciation potential is 39% to a McDep Ratio of 1.0 ...
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DVD   Dover Motorsports: Positives Outweigh the Negatives 12/03/09   —  Dover Motorsports (DVD) is an interesting investment opportunity. I stumbled upon it while writing a report about International Speedway Corporation for my clients. Please refer to my report on International Speedway Corporation for background on NASCAR and the racing industry. If you do not have thi...
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