|
|
Picks Performance:
Outperforms
73%
of community
|
|
|
All-time Return
+1.04%
(in over 4 years)
|
Risk (SD)
Moderate
0.00%
|
Sharpe Ratio
-2.09
|
Followers
87
|
Winning Picks
786
of
1807
|
Total Views
2576404
|
|
View:
Shared Picks (Quick)
/ (Detailed)
|
Personal Portfolio
Mike Havrilla doesn't have an active pick right now.
January 21
Health Benefit Providers Face Uncertain Future
This pick is about: America Service Group Inc. (ASGR)
| Rating: |
$10.5 (01/21/09)
|
| Closed: |
02/28/2009
@ $11.01
(+4.86%
in
38 days)
|
|
|
|
The table at my website link below contains 36 companies included in the ETF Innovators Health Benefit Providers Index. Many of the companies included in this index face an uncertain future with the prospect for healthcare reform threatening the profit margin of managed care companies; although the prospect for universal health insurance promises increased volumes as more Americans gain coverage. The index contains retail pharmacies such as Rite Aid (RAD), pharmacy benefit managers such as MedcoHealth Solutions (MHS), managed care companies such as UnitedHealth (UNH), supplemental health insurers such as Aflac (AFL), hospital pharmacy operators such as PharMerica (PMC), workers compensation insurers such as Amerisafe (AMSF), and specialty health service providers such as Healthways (HWAY). The Health Benefits Index posted an average loss of about 37% in the past year on an equal-weight basis, which is similar to the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) loss of 36%, but worse than the 25% loss for the Healthcare Sector SPDR (XLV). The closest benchmark ETF to this index is the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Healthcare Providers (IHF), which fared the worst with a loss of nearly 46% in the past year. Only four companies in the index managed to post a stock price gain in the past year, including PMC, Omnicare (OCR), AMSF, and America Service Group (ASGR). The group of gainers carried a common theme of providing specialized health benefit services, including PMC – an operator of hospital pharmacies, OCR – pharmacy services + distribution for long-term care facilities, AMSF – workers compensation insurance, and ASGR – managed care services for correctional facilities.
|
|
Health Benefit Providers Face Uncertain Future
This pick is about: Omnicare Inc. (OCR)
| Rating: |
$27.17 (01/21/09)
|
| Closed: |
02/28/2009
@ $25.24
(-7.10%
in
38 days)
|
|
|
|
The table at my website link below contains 36 companies included in the ETF Innovators Health Benefit Providers Index. Many of the companies included in this index face an uncertain future with the prospect for healthcare reform threatening the profit margin of managed care companies; although the prospect for universal health insurance promises increased volumes as more Americans gain coverage. The index contains retail pharmacies such as Rite Aid (RAD), pharmacy benefit managers such as MedcoHealth Solutions (MHS), managed care companies such as UnitedHealth (UNH), supplemental health insurers such as Aflac (AFL), hospital pharmacy operators such as PharMerica (PMC), workers compensation insurers such as Amerisafe (AMSF), and specialty health service providers such as Healthways (HWAY). The Health Benefits Index posted an average loss of about 37% in the past year on an equal-weight basis, which is similar to the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) loss of 36%, but worse than the 25% loss for the Healthcare Sector SPDR (XLV). The closest benchmark ETF to this index is the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Healthcare Providers (IHF), which fared the worst with a loss of nearly 46% in the past year. Only four companies in the index managed to post a stock price gain in the past year, including PMC, Omnicare (OCR), AMSF, and America Service Group (ASGR). The group of gainers carried a common theme of providing specialized health benefit services, including PMC – an operator of hospital pharmacies, OCR – pharmacy services + distribution for long-term care facilities, AMSF – workers compensation insurance, and ASGR – managed care services for correctional facilities.
|
|
Health Benefit Providers Face Uncertain Future
This pick is about: PharMerica Corp. (PMC)
| Rating: |
$15.77 (01/21/09)
|
| Closed: |
02/28/2009
@ $16.39
(+3.93%
in
38 days)
|
|
|
|
The table at my website link below contains 36 companies included in the ETF Innovators Health Benefit Providers Index. Many of the companies included in this index face an uncertain future with the prospect for healthcare reform threatening the profit margin of managed care companies; although the prospect for universal health insurance promises increased volumes as more Americans gain coverage. The index contains retail pharmacies such as Rite Aid (RAD), pharmacy benefit managers such as MedcoHealth Solutions (MHS), managed care companies such as UnitedHealth (UNH), supplemental health insurers such as Aflac (AFL), hospital pharmacy operators such as PharMerica (PMC), workers compensation insurers such as Amerisafe (AMSF), and specialty health service providers such as Healthways (HWAY). The Health Benefits Index posted an average loss of about 37% in the past year on an equal-weight basis, which is similar to the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) loss of 36%, but worse than the 25% loss for the Healthcare Sector SPDR (XLV). The closest benchmark ETF to this index is the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Healthcare Providers (IHF), which fared the worst with a loss of nearly 46% in the past year. Only four companies in the index managed to post a stock price gain in the past year, including PMC, Omnicare (OCR), AMSF, and America Service Group (ASGR). The group of gainers carried a common theme of providing specialized health benefit services, including PMC – an operator of hospital pharmacies, OCR – pharmacy services + distribution for long-term care facilities, AMSF – workers compensation insurance, and ASGR – managed care services for correctional facilities.
|
|
February 07
Healthcare Investing Trends in '09 and Beyond
This pick is about: Medco Health Solutions Inc. (MHS)
| Rating: |
$47.18 (02/07/09)
|
| Closed: |
02/28/2009
@ $39.6
(-16.07%
in
21 days)
|
|
|
|
While the departure of Tom Daschle and concerns over rising unemployment and the global economic slowdown may hamper many of President Obama's plans for healthcare reform; there are several growth trends within the sector outlined below which are poised to benefit in 2009 and beyond. Follow any of the links below for more information on the new ETF Innovators indexes and exchange-traded fund ideas for the sector. Global Health IT : The top five rated companies include Swiss telemedicine firm Card Guard (CDGUF) – a provider of remote patient monitoring systems, Merge Healthcare (MRGE) – a clinical + medical imaging information software developer, Quality Systems (QSII) – NextGen electronic medical records system, SXC Health Solutions (SXCI) – pharmacy benefit management + transaction systems, and CardiNet (BEAT) – CardioNet System for real-time, outpatient heart rhythm monitoring. Cerner (CERN) and Allscripts-Misys (MDRX) are two more companies included in the top 30 rated stocks as integrated Health IT plays on electronic prescribing (e-prescribing), computerized medical records, and health information systems. The entire Health IT space is poised to benefit (although not immediately) from an expected multi-billion dollar investment (likely around $20B) as part of an overall $800B-plus stimulus plan which is still being debated. Generic Drugs : The Healthcare Cost Containment Index includes generic drug companies such as Teva Pharma (TEVA) and Perrigo (PRGO) as well as pharmacy benefit managers such as Express Scripts (ESRX), which share the common theme of promoting the use of generic drug products to lower overall healthcare costs. Favorable growth trends for the generic drug industry include nearly $70B in brand name drug sales with patent expirations through 2012, a push to increase generic substitution rates from 65% of all prescriptions dispensed to over 70%, continued industry consolidation of small and mid-caps by industry leaders such as TEVA and Mylan Labs (MYL), and the potential for legislation this year regarding generic versions of high-cost biological agents, with Merck (MRK) announcing plans for a bio-generic division which will initially target Amgen's (AMGN) anemia drug Aranesp. Preventive Medicine : An index of companies involved in diagnostics, lab services, diabetes care, and vaccines which have positive growth trends and represent M&A targets for big pharma companies, such as Pfizer's (PFE) recent deal for Wyeth (WYE) in which PFE cited Wyeth's high-growth vaccine + biological agent business as a major reason for the deal. Crucell (CRXL) represents the largest pure-play vaccine maker with a market cap over $1B, and the stock is up nearly 20% since I wrote about it last week as a likely takeover target this year. Cosmetic and Restorative Medicine (CRM): The CRM Index is organized to include companies which either enhance appearance or restore bodily functions (with increased demand expected from an aging Baby Boomer population and as medical advances allow people to live longer) – including a breakdown of approximately 15% stem cells + regenerative medicine, 25% skin care + cosmetic medicine, 30% orthopedic repair + implants, and 30% cardiovascular repair + implants. While the Emerging Stem Cell Index would not be feasible for a standalone ETF, it serves as a feeder index for companies which progress above the $100M market cap level to be eligible for the CRM index such as StemCells (STEM), Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX), RTI Biologics (RTIX), and BioMimetic Therapeutics (BMTI). Favorable trends for stem cell companies include the allowance by the FDA for human embryonic stem cell testing, the move by big pharma into regenerative medicine as the next frontier for R&D, the likelihood of federal funding for stem cell research, and expected 2Q09 results for Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR) leading to a rolling BLA submission for Prochymal as part of a major deal with Genzyme (GENZ).
|
|
February 20
A 130/30 Pharma Trade
This pick is about: Pfizer Inc (PFE)
| Rating: |
$13.83 (02/20/09)
|
| Closed: |
02/26/2009
@ $13.21
(+4.48%
in
6 days)
|
|
|
|
By Mike Havrilla on 2/20/09 ETF Innovators The tables at my website link below include 12 U.S. listed companies from the ETF Innovators Global Generic Drug Index along with seven brand drug companies, which are ranked in descending order based on their patent expiration exposure through the end of 2011 as a percentage of total trailing 12-month revenue. Investors who are bullish on the generic drug industry may consider implementing a 130/30 pharma trade by shorting any/all of the seven brand drug companies listed with 30% of assets while investing 130% of assets in long positions in generic drug makers. Favorable growth trends for the generic drug industry include nearly $70B in brand name drug sales with patent expirations through 2012, a push to increase generic substitution rates from 65% of all prescriptions dispensed to over 70%, continued industry consolidation of small and mid-caps by industry leaders such as Teva Pharma (TEVA) and Mylan Labs (MYL), and the potential for legislation this year to clarify a regulatory pathway for bio-generics. The list of brand drug companies in descending order of patent expiration exposure through the end of 2011 includes: Pfizer (PFE), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Takeda Pharma (TKPHY.PK), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Sanofi-Aventis (SNY), AstraZeneca (AZN), and Merck (MRK). However, MRK is hedging its bets with a recently established bio-generic division which will initially target Amgen's (AMGN) anemia drug Aranesp and PFE has an in-house generic division under the Greenstone label. MYL is on the move up today by nearly 10% after reporting results that beat expectations and the Company also transferred its stock listing to the Nasdaq and rang the opening bell today. The other 11 U.S. listed generic drug makers include Caraco Pharma (CPD), Lannett (LCI), Hi-Tech Pharmacal (HITK), TEVA, Taro Pharma (TAROF.PK), Impax Labs (IPXL.OB), Dr. Reddy's Lab (RDY), Par Pharma (PRX), Perrigo (PRGO), Momenta Pharma (MNTA), and Watson Pharma (WPI) – which also posted strong results and guidance yesterday.
|
|
February 10
New Website for Healthcare Investors and Traders
This pick is about: Pharmaceutical HOLDRs Trust Pharmaceutical HOLDRs Trust (PPH)
| Rating: |
$59.58 (02/10/09)
|
| Closed: |
02/26/2009
@ $57.0
(-4.33%
in
16 days)
|
|
|
|
A new website for healthcare investors and traders should be ready to launch by the end of February, which is designed to provide users with more features beyond my current blog format. The site will feature its own blog, discussion forum, news feeds, videos, stock commentaries (including multiple contributors), and other unique content – including my FDA and Clinical Trial Calendars plus a database that includes hundreds of foreign and U.S.-listed stocks in the healthcare sector which are organized into unique indexes, including: 1.) Emerging Stem Cell Research – StemCells (STEM) 2.) Pet Care and Animal Farma – PetMed Express (PETS) 3.) Emerging and Micro-Cap Bio-Pharma (micro/small-cap biotechs and pharmaceuticals) – Dendreon (DNDN) 4.) Emerging Diagnostics – EXACT Sciences (EXAS) 5.) Cosmetic and Restorative Medicine (Regenerative Medicine, Skin Care + Cosmetic Medicine, Ortho Repair + Implants, and Cardiovascular Repair + Implants) – Genzyme (GENZ) 6.) Health Information Technology (IT) – Allscripts-Misys (MDRX) 7.) Generic Drugs (including biogenerics) – Teva Pharma (TEVA) 8.) Health Benefits and Hospitals – Aetna (AET) 9.) Preventive Medicine (Diagnostics, Vaccines, Diabetes Care) – Novo Nordisk (NVO) The new indexes will be tracked and written about at the website to provide users with the ability to create their own healthcare ETFs for investment strategies beyond current broad-based funds and indexes such as Healthcare Sector SPDR (XLV), iShares S&P Global Healthcare (IXJ), iShares Nasdaq Biotech (IBB), SPDR S&P Biotech (XBI), Pharmaceutical HOLDDRs (PPH), Biotech HOLDRs (BBH), PowerShares Dynamic Pharma (PJP), and iShares Dow Jones U.S. Healthcare Provider (IHF). Please note that my current site at http://www.etfinnovators.com/ and RSS Feed at http://feedproxy.google.com/etfi will continue to be available for a limited time during the transition, but all new content will be posted at the new site in a variety of formats beyond just blog entries. Please contact me if you are interested in purchasing the ETFinnovators.com website domain name (or the entire group of 15 business and investing domain names), with links to the Google Page Rank statistics and value estimates provided below. http://www.google.com/Top/Business/Investing/Funds/ETFs_and_C... http://www.websiteoutlook.com/www.etfinnovators.com Below are 14 additional business and investing website domain names available for sale either individually or in some other combination: AIRETF.com CoalPriceFund.com DefensivETF.com HealthETFS.com HealthITFund.com NordicETF.com PerformIdex.com RailroadETF.com StemCellsETF.com StemCellShares.com StemCellsIndex.com TobaccoETF.com TransportETFS.com TruckingETF.com
|
|
February 20
A 130/30 Pharma Trade
This pick is about: Watson Pharmaceuticals Inc. (WPI)
| Rating: |
$29.7 (02/20/09)
|
| Closed: |
02/26/2009
@ $30.06
(+1.21%
in
6 days)
|
|
|
|
By Mike Havrilla on 2/20/09 ETF Innovators The tables at my website link below include 12 U.S. listed companies from the ETF Innovators Global Generic Drug Index along with seven brand drug companies, which are ranked in descending order based on their patent expiration exposure through the end of 2011 as a percentage of total trailing 12-month revenue. Investors who are bullish on the generic drug industry may consider implementing a 130/30 pharma trade by shorting any/all of the seven brand drug companies listed with 30% of assets while investing 130% of assets in long positions in generic drug makers. Favorable growth trends for the generic drug industry include nearly $70B in brand name drug sales with patent expirations through 2012, a push to increase generic substitution rates from 65% of all prescriptions dispensed to over 70%, continued industry consolidation of small and mid-caps by industry leaders such as Teva Pharma (TEVA) and Mylan Labs (MYL), and the potential for legislation this year to clarify a regulatory pathway for bio-generics. The list of brand drug companies in descending order of patent expiration exposure through the end of 2011 includes: Pfizer (PFE), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Takeda Pharma (TKPHY.PK), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Sanofi-Aventis (SNY), AstraZeneca (AZN), and Merck (MRK). However, MRK is hedging its bets with a recently established bio-generic division which will initially target Amgen's (AMGN) anemia drug Aranesp and PFE has an in-house generic division under the Greenstone label. MYL is on the move up today by nearly 10% after reporting results that beat expectations and the Company also transferred its stock listing to the Nasdaq and rang the opening bell today. The other 11 U.S. listed generic drug makers include Caraco Pharma (CPD), Lannett (LCI), Hi-Tech Pharmacal (HITK), TEVA, Taro Pharma (TAROF.PK), Impax Labs (IPXL.OB), Dr. Reddy's Lab (RDY), Par Pharma (PRX), Perrigo (PRGO), Momenta Pharma (MNTA), and Watson Pharma (WPI) – which also posted strong results and guidance yesterday.
|
|
December 02
Generic Cardio Drugs Equal Brands - JAMA
This pick is about: Lannett Company Inc (LCI)
| Rating: |
$1.85 (12/02/08)
|
| Closed: |
02/26/2009
@ $5.2
(+181.08%
in
85 days)
|
|
|
|
 A meta-analysis review of clinical studies published in peer-reviewed journals was featured today in The Journal of the American Medical Association [JAMA] and concluded that cost-saving generics used to treat a variety of cardiovascular conditions produced equivalent clinical outcomes to higher cost brand name drugs. Despite this clinical evidence, the review notes that a majority (53%) of the 43 editorials analyzed had a negative opinion on generic substitution. While there are currently no ETFs on the market which feature generic drug companies, the ETF Innovators [ETFI] Global Healthcare Cost Containment Index of 64 companies with market caps of $150M-$60B profiled in the accompanying table includes about 67% which derive the majority of their revenue in the generic drug industry and 77 companies if those below the $150M market cap are included. Also, only 25 of the 77 companies maintain U.S. listings for their stocks, making the index global in nature with the following distribution based on where each company is based: United States (21, 27%), Europe (12, 16%), India (21, 27%), China (14, 18%), and Japan (5, 6%). Momenta Pharma (MNTA) is also included in the index and represents a pure play on the future of biogenerics for those who believe legislation could come next year to ease the path for lower cost, generic equivalents to biotech products – including the CEO of MedcoHealth Solutions (MHS) – which is another component in the index as a pharmacy benefit manager focused on reducing overall healthcare costs and encouraging generic substitution. The market cap leaders for generic versions of prescription and over-the-counter drug products are also included in the Top 10, Teva Pharma (TEVA) and Perrigo (PRGO), respectively. A generic drug company which is expected to resume trading again shortly is Impax Labs (formerly IPXL), which had net cash of $73M and trailing 12-month GAAP sales of $309M as of 2Q08, according to a recent presentation available at their website . I have also written recently about generic drug value plays such as Caraco Pharma (CPD), Hi-Tech Pharmacal (HITK), and Home Diagnostics (HDIX). The Top 30 Rated Healthcare Cost Containment companies outpaced benchmark healthcare ETFs over the past year with a loss of just 2.7%, compared to losses of about 30% each for the Healthcare Sector SPDR (XLV) and iShares S&P Global Healthcare (IXJ), 18% for PowerShares Dynamic Pharma (PJP), 28% for Pharma HOLDRs, and 22% for iShares Dow Jones U.S. Pharma (IHE).
|
|
January 28
Hi-Tech Pharmacal: Hi-Growth at a Value Price
This pick is about: HiTech Pharmacal Co. Inc. (HITK)
| Rating: |
$4.7 (01/28/09)
|
| Closed: |
02/26/2009
@ $5.32
(+13.19%
in
29 days)
|
|
|
|
Hi-Tech Pharmacal: Hi-Growth at a Value Price With shares of Home Diagnostics (HDIX) surging by nearly 50% since I profiled the company in mid-December as a turnaround, value play from the ETF Innovators Healthcare Cost Containment Index ; a search for compelling values among these companies today led me to generic drug maker Hi-Tech Pharmacal (HITK). Shares of HITK are down by about 10% in the past five days on light volume and no news headlines, providing a nice chance to accumulate some shares. The Company reported record quarterly revenue for its second fiscal quarter and is expected to earn 41 cents per share for FY09 (which ends in April), which results in a P/E of about 11 based on the current price around $4.60 per share. As illustrated in the accompanying one-month chart, HITK has lagged behind its peer group – including a gain of about 10% for Caraco Pharma (CPD) and over 20% for Mylan Labs (MYL). Also, favorable trends for the generic drug industry include $70B in patent expirations through 2012, a push to increase generic substitution rates to 70% from 65%, and legislation expected this year to clear the way for generic versions of high-cost biotech drugs. Despite the favorable growth outlook for generic drug makers such as HITK in the coming years, the stock trades at deep value parameters, trading at just two-thirds of its book value and trailing 12-month revenue. HITK holds $12.9M in cash with negligible long-term debt of $0.3M for an enterprise value (EV) of $38M, yielding an EV to revenue ratio of 0.5X. Trailing 12-month revenue is $77M and the current market cap is $52M. As with HDIX, HITK also believes its stock represents an excellent value, repurchasing a total of 94,000 shares of common stock during its last fiscal quarter ending in October for a total cost of $661,000 for an average price of about $7 per share. Investors today can buy shares of HITK at a steep discount of about 33% with shares hovering around the $4.60 level. For the 2Q09, HITK posted a 44% increase from the year-ago period for generic drug product sales at $19.5M, boosted by $5.4M in sales of Dorzolamide with Timolol ophthalmic solution as the generic equivalent for Merck's (MRK) Cosopt for the treatment of glaucoma. HITK also posted strong results for its consumer healthcare division , which also increased by 44% to $3.3M, thanks to newly launched brands which include Zostrix Neuropathy and Nasal Ease. As expected with a multitude of new product launches during 2Q09, HITK experienced increases across the board from the year-ago period for the following: - cost of sales (up 28.4% to $13.1M, but down 12% as a percentage of sales to 52%) - research and product development (R&D) (up 20% to $1.8M) - selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) (up 31.6% to $7.5M) The sharp increase in sales and higher margins for new products resulted in net income for the quarter of $1.1M, reversing a $1M loss in the year-ago period for diluted EPS of $0.09 versus a loss of ($0.08) last year. The ongoing saga and recently extended $7.75 per share tender offer (until 1/30/09) for Taro Pharma (TAROF) by India's largest generic drug maker by market cap, Sun Pharma (524715), offers a relative valuation comparison for a small-cap generic drug company. The $7.75 per share tender offer values Taro at about 0.9X sales or $283M; although the Company is currently trading almost $2 above the tender offer price at $9.55 per share. HITK enjoys a stronger balance sheet than Taro, with the latter holding $66M in cash and net debt of $123M, which makes the actual purchase price for Sun Pharma even higher at an EV of about $400M and an EV to revenue ratio of 1.3X. On a relative valuation basis, HITK has about 2X upside from current levels to nine bucks, which would result in a similar EV to revenue ratio.
|
|
February 25
Caraco Pharma Awaits FDA Inspection in May
This pick is about: Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (TEVA)
| Rating: |
$45.171 (02/25/09)
|
| Closed: |
02/26/2009
@ $45.13
(-0.09%
in
20 hours)
|
|
|
|
By Mike Havrilla on 2/25/09 I spoke with the investor relations representative for Caraco Pharma (CPD) earlier this week and received some clarity on the expected timeline for resolving the major overhang on the stock price related to the FDA warning letter over Form 483 concerns by the agency stemming from quality control issues raised during an inspection of manufacturing facilities last year. Caraco has responded in full to the warning letter and the FDA will evaluate the corrective actions taken by the Company at its next scheduled inspection, which is expected to occur some time in May. Caraco believes it is compliant with the FDA's cGMP regulations related to manufacturing and quality control and the issue remains the top focus at the Company, reflected by investments in personnel and facility upgrades. The Company expects the FDA inspection in May to be the final step in resolving the warning letter issues as the agency will evaluate Caraco's upgrades in manufacturing and quality control at the Detroit facility to determine if these actions satisfy the agency's Form 483 concerns. Once the FDA completes its inspection and is satisfied with the corrective actions, Caraco will be eligible to receive new generic drug product approvals from the Detroit facility (please note that the sale of currently marketed products was not affected by the warning letter) – removing all uncertainties currently weighing on the stock price, which has lost nearly three-quarters of market value in the past year. CPD reported results for its fiscal 3Q09 in late January, including $55.7M in revenue and net income of $5.1M, which was down from the year-ago period revenue of $81.9M and net income of $10.8M. The year-ago period benefited substantially from the 180-day exclusivity period associated with the generic drug launch of oxcarbazepine (Trileptal) in conjunction with Sun Pharma (SUNPHARMA.NS). Caraco noted that full-year revenue for fiscal 2009 is expected to be about the same as the previous year, reflecting uncertainty over the at-risk launch of generic Protonix (pantoprazole) and lower sales of oxcarbazepine since the exclusivity period has ended. Gross profit margin through the first nine months of FY09 declined to 21% from 36% in the year-ago period due to a higher mix of sales from distributed products, which have a much lower margin compared to manufactured products, with the latter posting 48% profit margin for the fiscal year to-date. For the first nine months of FY09, Caraco filed six abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) related to five new generic drug products with a total of 25 pending ANDAs related to 21 new generic drug products. Caraco ended the calendar year with $34M in cash and $104M in working capital and expects cash flow from operations will be sufficient to fund its business plans, including the expansion of manufacturing facilities in Detroit which is nearly complete. Caraco is currently debt free and would only consider taking on debt for strategic acquisitions. Sun Pharma is India's largest generic drug company by market cap which is a major strategic partner and holds a majority stake (around 75%) in Caraco through stock purchases and product/technology transfer agreements. Sun Pharma recently acquired Chattanooga, TN-based Chattem Chemical to strengthen its presence in the highly regulated market for controlled drug products, as Chattem is a registered with the DEA as an importer and manufacturer of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) for a variety of Schedule 1-5 controlled substances. Caraco Pharma offers U.S. investors a way to play Sun Pharma's growth through their distribution agreement and the Company believes it has addressed the issues raised in the FDA warning letter completely, which provides a potential upside catalyst upon resolution. Also, Caraco is committed to product development agreements with other companies and internal R&D efforts focused on formulations aimed at expanding its product offerings. The following is a summary of the valuation parameters for Caraco: 1.) CPD Market Cap = $142M, stock price around 4 bucks 2.) Trailing 12-month Revenue = $478M, Net Income = $34.4M 3.) Price/Sales Ratio (PSR) = 0.31X, Trailing Price/Earnings Ratio = 4.8X 4.) Enterprise Value (EV)/EBITDA Ratio = 3.5X, EV/Sales Ratio = 0.39X 5.) Price/Book Ratio = 1.16X Favorable growth trends for the generic drug industry include nearly $70B in brand name drug sales with patent expirations through 2012, a push to increase generic substitution rates from 65% of all prescriptions dispensed to over 70%, continued industry consolidation of small and mid-caps by industry leaders such as Teva Pharma (TEVA) and Mylan Labs (MYL), and the potential for legislation this year regarding generic versions of high-cost biological agents. Major U.S. listed generic drug makers such as TEVA, MYL, and Watson Pharma (WPI) have posted strong operating results and stock price gains over the past three months. MYL has more than doubled from multi-year lows late last year when it was trading at similar value parameters to where Caraco currently trades. The upcoming FDA inspection, strategic relationship with Sun Pharma, 25 pending ANDAs, and value parameters for Caraco position the stock well for long-term growth and gains if you believe the Company has adequately addressed the warning letter issues through personnel and facility upgrades to satisfy the concerns of the FDA.
|
|
Caraco Pharma Awaits FDA Inspection in May
This pick is about: Mylan Laboratories Inc (MYL)
| Rating: |
$12.9699 (02/25/09)
|
| Closed: |
02/26/2009
@ $13.25
(+2.16%
in
20 hours)
|
|
|
|
By Mike Havrilla on 2/25/09 I spoke with the investor relations representative for Caraco Pharma (CPD) earlier this week and received some clarity on the expected timeline for resolving the major overhang on the stock price related to the FDA warning letter over Form 483 concerns by the agency stemming from quality control issues raised during an inspection of manufacturing facilities last year. Caraco has responded in full to the warning letter and the FDA will evaluate the corrective actions taken by the Company at its next scheduled inspection, which is expected to occur some time in May. Caraco believes it is compliant with the FDA's cGMP regulations related to manufacturing and quality control and the issue remains the top focus at the Company, reflected by investments in personnel and facility upgrades. The Company expects the FDA inspection in May to be the final step in resolving the warning letter issues as the agency will evaluate Caraco's upgrades in manufacturing and quality control at the Detroit facility to determine if these actions satisfy the agency's Form 483 concerns. Once the FDA completes its inspection and is satisfied with the corrective actions, Caraco will be eligible to receive new generic drug product approvals from the Detroit facility (please note that the sale of currently marketed products was not affected by the warning letter) – removing all uncertainties currently weighing on the stock price, which has lost nearly three-quarters of market value in the past year. CPD reported results for its fiscal 3Q09 in late January, including $55.7M in revenue and net income of $5.1M, which was down from the year-ago period revenue of $81.9M and net income of $10.8M. The year-ago period benefited substantially from the 180-day exclusivity period associated with the generic drug launch of oxcarbazepine (Trileptal) in conjunction with Sun Pharma (SUNPHARMA.NS). Caraco noted that full-year revenue for fiscal 2009 is expected to be about the same as the previous year, reflecting uncertainty over the at-risk launch of generic Protonix (pantoprazole) and lower sales of oxcarbazepine since the exclusivity period has ended. Gross profit margin through the first nine months of FY09 declined to 21% from 36% in the year-ago period due to a higher mix of sales from distributed products, which have a much lower margin compared to manufactured products, with the latter posting 48% profit margin for the fiscal year to-date. For the first nine months of FY09, Caraco filed six abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) related to five new generic drug products with a total of 25 pending ANDAs related to 21 new generic drug products. Caraco ended the calendar year with $34M in cash and $104M in working capital and expects cash flow from operations will be sufficient to fund its business plans, including the expansion of manufacturing facilities in Detroit which is nearly complete. Caraco is currently debt free and would only consider taking on debt for strategic acquisitions. Sun Pharma is India's largest generic drug company by market cap which is a major strategic partner and holds a majority stake (around 75%) in Caraco through stock purchases and product/technology transfer agreements. Sun Pharma recently acquired Chattanooga, TN-based Chattem Chemical to strengthen its presence in the highly regulated market for controlled drug products, as Chattem is a registered with the DEA as an importer and manufacturer of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) for a variety of Schedule 1-5 controlled substances. Caraco Pharma offers U.S. investors a way to play Sun Pharma's growth through their distribution agreement and the Company believes it has addressed the issues raised in the FDA warning letter completely, which provides a potential upside catalyst upon resolution. Also, Caraco is committed to product development agreements with other companies and internal R&D efforts focused on formulations aimed at expanding its product offerings. The following is a summary of the valuation parameters for Caraco: 1.) CPD Market Cap = $142M, stock price around 4 bucks 2.) Trailing 12-month Revenue = $478M, Net Income = $34.4M 3.) Price/Sales Ratio (PSR) = 0.31X, Trailing Price/Earnings Ratio = 4.8X 4.) Enterprise Value (EV)/EBITDA Ratio = 3.5X, EV/Sales Ratio = 0.39X 5.) Price/Book Ratio = 1.16X Favorable growth trends for the generic drug industry include nearly $70B in brand name drug sales with patent expirations through 2012, a push to increase generic substitution rates from 65% of all prescriptions dispensed to over 70%, continued industry consolidation of small and mid-caps by industry leaders such as Teva Pharma (TEVA) and Mylan Labs (MYL), and the potential for legislation this year regarding generic versions of high-cost biological agents. Major U.S. listed generic drug makers such as TEVA, MYL, and Watson Pharma (WPI) have posted strong operating results and stock price gains over the past three months. MYL has more than doubled from multi-year lows late last year when it was trading at similar value parameters to where Caraco currently trades. The upcoming FDA inspection, strategic relationship with Sun Pharma, 25 pending ANDAs, and value parameters for Caraco position the stock well for long-term growth and gains if you believe the Company has adequately addressed the warning letter issues through personnel and facility upgrades to satisfy the concerns of the FDA.
|
|
January 26
Healthcare Hot Spots Beyond Stem Cells
This pick is about: Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MNTA)
| Rating: |
$10.78 (01/26/09)
|
| Closed: |
02/26/2009
@ $10.46
(-2.97%
in
31 days)
|
|
|
|
Beyond Stem Cells: Healthcare Hot Spots With the surprise announcement last week by Geron (GERN) that the FDA would allow human clinical trials for embryonic stem cells, all companies in the underlying ETF Innovators Index to track the space are screaming higher again today – led by the company with the biggest gains over the past year, StemCells (STEM). Below are three additional areas and associated companies for investors to consider in the search of the next hot spots in the healthcare sector, including a focus on small/mid-cap companies which have the added potential to be acquired as part of renewed M&A in the sector this year. EXACT Sciences (EXAS) has rejected the hostile $1.50 all-stock offer from Sequenom (SQNM) as the Board pursues a more lucrative deal for shareholders. While EXAS also holds patents in the prenatal diagnostic space; its strongest IP position and commercial potential lies with non-invasive stool DNA (sDNA) screening for colorectal cancer (CRC). A NY Times report summarizes the results of a study published in the medical journal, Annals of Internal Medicine , which concluded that colonoscopies may actually prevent 60%-70% of CRC, rather than previously quoted rate of 90% for the test. While colonoscopies are still effective at preventing CRC and will continue to be widely recommended and used; the study highlights limitations of the procedure – especially in the detection of flat and right-sided lesions, with the latter accounting for about 40% of all CRC cases. Sensitivity results of 82% were already published last summer for EXACT's V2 sDNA technology , while the next-generation sDNA test (V3) boasts 92% sensitivity and has shown the potential to detect 86% of precancerous adenomas. Currently, only 24% of the 90M eligible patients in the U.S. are compliant with CRC screening recommendations and there is clearly an unmet medical need for an effective, non-invasive CRC screening test for the average-risk population which people will actually use. A deal for EXAS with a global diagnostics company such as Abbott Labs (ABT) or Roche (RHHBY) would be ideal to expand outside the U.S. market, as a report concluded that the E.U. needs to double the current rate for cancer screenings in order to reduce preventable deaths. The report calls on the 27 member countries to improve large-scale screening programs for target groups regardless of their symptoms, and only 12 member countries currently have programs for CRC screening. While other companies such as Rosetta Genomics (ROSG) have reported promising results for blood-based screening tests for CRC; such tests must be fully evaluated in larger clinical trials and then must be endorsed by the American Cancer Society (ACS) before widespread acceptance and use can be achieved. As EXAS shareholders well know, the process of ACS endorsement can take years to obtain and the CRC testing guidelines were just revised last fall. CombiMatrix (CBMX) is another molecular diagnostics company with 12 tests on the market which is developing a comprehensive cancer array that is designed to be an early warning detection system for a broad range of cancers. The blood test would be given at annual physicals and CBMX hopes to launch by mid-2010. If such a test makes it to the market, CBMX would only need to capture one-half of 1% of the potential market to achieve more than its current market cap in annual sales. Caraco Pharma (CPD) and Hi-Tech Pharmacal (HITK) are my favorite value picks among generic drug makers. CPD will report earnings later this week and still has an overhanging FDA warning letter for manufacturing and quality control issues from last year. The Company responded to the warning letter, but expect shares to hover around $5-$6 until the FDA is satisfied and provides a response. HITK is down sharply in the past few days on light volume and no news, providing a nice chance to accumulate some shares. The Company reported record quarterly revenue for its second fiscal quarter and is expected to earn 41 cents per share for FY09 (ends in April), which results in a P/E of about 11 based on the current price around $4.60 per share. Both of these names have upside of at least 2X based on Sun Pharma's (India: 524715) tender offer for Taro Pharma (TAROF) on a relative valuation basis, in addition to favorable trends for generic drugs such as $70B in patent expirations through 2012, a push to increase generic substitution rates to 70% from 65%, and legislation expected this year to clear the way for generic versions of high-cost biotech drugs. Momenta Pharma (MNTA) represents a pure-play on the future of bio-generics and is also developing a mix of proprietary compounds, follow-on-biologics (FOB), and complex generic drug products in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis (NVS). The pending ANDA for M-Enoxaparin as the generic equivalent for Lovenox does not have a decision date deadline, but MNTA has an inside track over competitors such as Teva Pharma (TEVA) and Amphastar/Watson Pharma (WPI) after working with the FDA during the heparin contamination crisis. More importantly, new legislation for FOB is not required for the two ANDAs or the proprietary blood thinner M-118, but would serve as an added bonus for MNTA and increase the value of their technology platform and ability to create equivalent versions of highly complex biological agents. The Health IT space is expected to receive about $20B in the massive stimulus plan, which is expected to pass by mid-February. The Health IT portion of the bill is expected to contain grants to encourage hospitals and clinics to spend on upgrades, in addition to longer-term incentives such as increased payments to healthcare providers to encourage electronic prescribing (e-prescribing) and other technology upgrades to encourage electronic medical records. I prefer a basket approach to Health IT (until an ETF provider is interested in developing an product on the underlying index ) with a focus on small/mid-cap names such as Allscripts-Misys (MDRX), SXC Health Solutions (SXCI), Quality Systems (QSII), CardioNet (BEAT), and Eclipsys (ECLP). The first four stocks have posted strong results and returns over the past year while ECLP represents a turnaround play trading at multi-year lows.
|
|
February 25
Caraco Pharma Awaits FDA Inspection in May
This pick is about: Caraco Pharmaceutical Labortories Ltd (CPD)
| Rating: |
$3.96 (02/25/09)
|
| Closed: |
02/26/2009
@ $3.99
(+0.76%
in
20 hours)
|
|
|
|
By Mike Havrilla on 2/25/09 I spoke with the investor relations representative for Caraco Pharma (CPD) earlier this week and received some clarity on the expected timeline for resolving the major overhang on the stock price related to the FDA warning letter over Form 483 concerns by the agency stemming from quality control issues raised during an inspection of manufacturing facilities last year. Caraco has responded in full to the warning letter and the FDA will evaluate the corrective actions taken by the Company at its next scheduled inspection, which is expected to occur some time in May. Caraco believes it is compliant with the FDA's cGMP regulations related to manufacturing and quality control and the issue remains the top focus at the Company, reflected by investments in personnel and facility upgrades. The Company expects the FDA inspection in May to be the final step in resolving the warning letter issues as the agency will evaluate Caraco's upgrades in manufacturing and quality control at the Detroit facility to determine if these actions satisfy the agency's Form 483 concerns. Once the FDA completes its inspection and is satisfied with the corrective actions, Caraco will be eligible to receive new generic drug product approvals from the Detroit facility (please note that the sale of currently marketed products was not affected by the warning letter) – removing all uncertainties currently weighing on the stock price, which has lost nearly three-quarters of market value in the past year. CPD reported results for its fiscal 3Q09 in late January, including $55.7M in revenue and net income of $5.1M, which was down from the year-ago period revenue of $81.9M and net income of $10.8M. The year-ago period benefited substantially from the 180-day exclusivity period associated with the generic drug launch of oxcarbazepine (Trileptal) in conjunction with Sun Pharma (SUNPHARMA.NS). Caraco noted that full-year revenue for fiscal 2009 is expected to be about the same as the previous year, reflecting uncertainty over the at-risk launch of generic Protonix (pantoprazole) and lower sales of oxcarbazepine since the exclusivity period has ended. Gross profit margin through the first nine months of FY09 declined to 21% from 36% in the year-ago period due to a higher mix of sales from distributed products, which have a much lower margin compared to manufactured products, with the latter posting 48% profit margin for the fiscal year to-date. For the first nine months of FY09, Caraco filed six abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) related to five new generic drug products with a total of 25 pending ANDAs related to 21 new generic drug products. Caraco ended the calendar year with $34M in cash and $104M in working capital and expects cash flow from operations will be sufficient to fund its business plans, including the expansion of manufacturing facilities in Detroit which is nearly complete. Caraco is currently debt free and would only consider taking on debt for strategic acquisitions. Sun Pharma is India's largest generic drug company by market cap which is a major strategic partner and holds a majority stake (around 75%) in Caraco through stock purchases and product/technology transfer agreements. Sun Pharma recently acquired Chattanooga, TN-based Chattem Chemical to strengthen its presence in the highly regulated market for controlled drug products, as Chattem is a registered with the DEA as an importer and manufacturer of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) for a variety of Schedule 1-5 controlled substances. Caraco Pharma offers U.S. investors a way to play Sun Pharma's growth through their distribution agreement and the Company believes it has addressed the issues raised in the FDA warning letter completely, which provides a potential upside catalyst upon resolution. Also, Caraco is committed to product development agreements with other companies and internal R&D efforts focused on formulations aimed at expanding its product offerings. The following is a summary of the valuation parameters for Caraco: 1.) CPD Market Cap = $142M, stock price around 4 bucks 2.) Trailing 12-month Revenue = $478M, Net Income = $34.4M 3.) Price/Sales Ratio (PSR) = 0.31X, Trailing Price/Earnings Ratio = 4.8X 4.) Enterprise Value (EV)/EBITDA Ratio = 3.5X, EV/Sales Ratio = 0.39X 5.) Price/Book Ratio = 1.16X Favorable growth trends for the generic drug industry include nearly $70B in brand name drug sales with patent expirations through 2012, a push to increase generic substitution rates from 65% of all prescriptions dispensed to over 70%, continued industry consolidation of small and mid-caps by industry leaders such as Teva Pharma (TEVA) and Mylan Labs (MYL), and the potential for legislation this year regarding generic versions of high-cost biological agents. Major U.S. listed generic drug makers such as TEVA, MYL, and Watson Pharma (WPI) have posted strong operating results and stock price gains over the past three months. MYL has more than doubled from multi-year lows late last year when it was trading at similar value parameters to where Caraco currently trades. The upcoming FDA inspection, strategic relationship with Sun Pharma, 25 pending ANDAs, and value parameters for Caraco position the stock well for long-term growth and gains if you believe the Company has adequately addressed the warning letter issues through personnel and facility upgrades to satisfy the concerns of the FDA.
|
|
January 19
Green Investors Hopeful on Eve of Inauguration
This pick is about: Climate Exchange Plc (CXCHF)
| Rating: |
$12.85 (01/19/09)
|
| Closed: |
02/26/2009
@ $7.3
(-43.19%
in
38 days)
|
|
|
|
Green Investors Hopeful on Eve of Inauguration The table at my website link below includes statistics and a short description of the 20 companies included in the ETF Innovators Global Carbon Trading Index along with benchmark energy commodities and exchange-traded products. The 20 companies in the Carbon Trading Index posted a gain of 5.6% over the past month, despite declines in the overall market, the global price of carbon, and major energy commodities. With the launch of AirShares Carbon Fund (ASO) in mid-December, investors have another option to trade the price of carbon with the iPath Global Carbon ETN (GRN) already on the market since early July. As a proxy for the global price of carbon, GRN declined by about 18% in the past month while ASO debuted with a 21% decline in its first month of trading. Both exchange-traded products for the global price of carbon have failed to attract significant interest from investors and traders, with less than $5M in net assets for each product and little in the way of average trading volume. Major energy commodities also declined during the past one and six months, with the U.S. Oil (USO) and Natural Gas (UNG) Funds losing 8.8% and 14.6%, respectively, in the past month and over 60% each in the past six months. Central Appalachian Coal Futures (NYMEX: QL) declined by about 10% in the past month and 43% over the past six months. The Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy (GEX) and Environmental Services (EVX) ETFs both saw previous gains evaporate, resulting in smaller gains of 0.6% and 2.5%, respectively in the past month while the Elements Global Warming ETN (GWO) declined by about 4% in the past month and 48% in the past six months. With the inauguration set for tomorrow, green activists and investors are hopeful that the new administration will enact legislation for a cap and trade system in the U.S. to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Climate Exchange (CXCHF) represents a pure-play on the operation of financial exchanges for carbon credit trading and is poised to gain from the global expansion of carbon trading. The exchange-based trading of carbon allowances in the U.S. began this past summer with the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative [RGGI]. The 10 RGGI states in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic have enacted a voluntary, regional cap and trade system to regulate carbon dioxide emissions from power plants. The Chicago Climate Futures Exchange offers trading for RGGI futures contracts, which trade at just a fraction of the prices for the two leading proxies for the price of carbon (EUAs and CERs, which are tracked by GRN + ASO) since the caps in the U.S. are voluntary and do not represent aggressive emission reductions. As its name implies, Climate Exchange is engaged in developing financial exchanges that allow for the trading of environmental financial vehicles such as the carbon credits tracked by GRN and ASO. The Company’s three main businesses include the European Climate Exchange [ECX], the Chicago Climate Futures Exchange [CCFE], and the Chicago Climate Exchange [CCX]. The ECX operates an exchange for the European Emissions Trading Scheme while the CCFE handles environmental futures contracts in the U.S. and the CCX operates the voluntary, contract-based cap and trade system to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. Climate Exchange currently trades at a market cap of around $600M U.S. Dollars and represents the largest pure-play exchange in the emerging and fast-growing market for exchange-based trading of carbon credits and related instruments such as the Insurance Futures Exchange Services [IFEX], which trades futures derivatives contracts to hedge against losses and damage from hurricanes and tropical storms.
|
|
Green Investors Hopeful on Eve of Inauguration
This pick is about: CREDIT SUISSE ELEMEN (GWO)
| Rating: |
$4.9 (01/19/09)
|
| Closed: |
02/26/2009
@ $4.44
(+9.39%
in
38 days)
|
|
|
|
Green Investors Hopeful on Eve of Inauguration The table at my website link below includes statistics and a short description of the 20 companies included in the ETF Innovators Global Carbon Trading Index along with benchmark energy commodities and exchange-traded products. The 20 companies in the Carbon Trading Index posted a gain of 5.6% over the past month, despite declines in the overall market, the global price of carbon, and major energy commodities. With the launch of AirShares Carbon Fund (ASO) in mid-December, investors have another option to trade the price of carbon with the iPath Global Carbon ETN (GRN) already on the market since early July. As a proxy for the global price of carbon, GRN declined by about 18% in the past month while ASO debuted with a 21% decline in its first month of trading. Both exchange-traded products for the global price of carbon have failed to attract significant interest from investors and traders, with less than $5M in net assets for each product and little in the way of average trading volume. Major energy commodities also declined during the past one and six months, with the U.S. Oil (USO) and Natural Gas (UNG) Funds losing 8.8% and 14.6%, respectively, in the past month and over 60% each in the past six months. Central Appalachian Coal Futures (NYMEX: QL) declined by about 10% in the past month and 43% over the past six months. The Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy (GEX) and Environmental Services (EVX) ETFs both saw previous gains evaporate, resulting in smaller gains of 0.6% and 2.5%, respectively in the past month while the Elements Global Warming ETN (GWO) declined by about 4% in the past month and 48% in the past six months. With the inauguration set for tomorrow, green activists and investors are hopeful that the new administration will enact legislation for a cap and trade system in the U.S. to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Climate Exchange (CXCHF) represents a pure-play on the operation of financial exchanges for carbon credit trading and is poised to gain from the global expansion of carbon trading. The exchange-based trading of carbon allowances in the U.S. began this past summer with the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative [RGGI]. The 10 RGGI states in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic have enacted a voluntary, regional cap and trade system to regulate carbon dioxide emissions from power plants. The Chicago Climate Futures Exchange offers trading for RGGI futures contracts, which trade at just a fraction of the prices for the two leading proxies for the price of carbon (EUAs and CERs, which are tracked by GRN + ASO) since the caps in the U.S. are voluntary and do not represent aggressive emission reductions. As its name implies, Climate Exchange is engaged in developing financial exchanges that allow for the trading of environmental financial vehicles such as the carbon credits tracked by GRN and ASO. The Company’s three main businesses include the European Climate Exchange [ECX], the Chicago Climate Futures Exchange [CCFE], and the Chicago Climate Exchange [CCX]. The ECX operates an exchange for the European Emissions Trading Scheme while the CCFE handles environmental futures contracts in the U.S. and the CCX operates the voluntary, contract-based cap and trade system to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. Climate Exchange currently trades at a market cap of around $600M U.S. Dollars and represents the largest pure-play exchange in the emerging and fast-growing market for exchange-based trading of carbon credits and related instruments such as the Insurance Futures Exchange Services [IFEX], which trades futures derivatives contracts to hedge against losses and damage from hurricanes and tropical storms.
|
|
Green Investors Hopeful on Eve of Inauguration
This pick is about: iPath Global Carbon ETN (GRN)
| Rating: |
$23.32 (01/19/09)
|
| Closed: |
02/26/2009
@ $18.35
(+21.31%
in
38 days)
|
|
|
|
Green Investors Hopeful on Eve of Inauguration The table at my website link below includes statistics and a short description of the 20 companies included in the ETF Innovators Global Carbon Trading Index along with benchmark energy commodities and exchange-traded products. The 20 companies in the Carbon Trading Index posted a gain of 5.6% over the past month, despite declines in the overall market, the global price of carbon, and major energy commodities. With the launch of AirShares Carbon Fund (ASO) in mid-December, investors have another option to trade the price of carbon with the iPath Global Carbon ETN (GRN) already on the market since early July. As a proxy for the global price of carbon, GRN declined by about 18% in the past month while ASO debuted with a 21% decline in its first month of trading. Both exchange-traded products for the global price of carbon have failed to attract significant interest from investors and traders, with less than $5M in net assets for each product and little in the way of average trading volume. Major energy commodities also declined during the past one and six months, with the U.S. Oil (USO) and Natural Gas (UNG) Funds losing 8.8% and 14.6%, respectively, in the past month and over 60% each in the past six months. Central Appalachian Coal Futures (NYMEX: QL) declined by about 10% in the past month and 43% over the past six months. The Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy (GEX) and Environmental Services (EVX) ETFs both saw previous gains evaporate, resulting in smaller gains of 0.6% and 2.5%, respectively in the past month while the Elements Global Warming ETN (GWO) declined by about 4% in the past month and 48% in the past six months. With the inauguration set for tomorrow, green activists and investors are hopeful that the new administration will enact legislation for a cap and trade system in the U.S. to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Climate Exchange (CXCHF) represents a pure-play on the operation of financial exchanges for carbon credit trading and is poised to gain from the global expansion of carbon trading. The exchange-based trading of carbon allowances in the U.S. began this past summer with the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative [RGGI]. The 10 RGGI states in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic have enacted a voluntary, regional cap and trade system to regulate carbon dioxide emissions from power plants. The Chicago Climate Futures Exchange offers trading for RGGI futures contracts, which trade at just a fraction of the prices for the two leading proxies for the price of carbon (EUAs and CERs, which are tracked by GRN + ASO) since the caps in the U.S. are voluntary and do not represent aggressive emission reductions. As its name implies, Climate Exchange is engaged in developing financial exchanges that allow for the trading of environmental financial vehicles such as the carbon credits tracked by GRN and ASO. The Company’s three main businesses include the European Climate Exchange [ECX], the Chicago Climate Futures Exchange [CCFE], and the Chicago Climate Exchange [CCX]. The ECX operates an exchange for the European Emissions Trading Scheme while the CCFE handles environmental futures contracts in the U.S. and the CCX operates the voluntary, contract-based cap and trade system to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. Climate Exchange currently trades at a market cap of around $600M U.S. Dollars and represents the largest pure-play exchange in the emerging and fast-growing market for exchange-based trading of carbon credits and related instruments such as the Insurance Futures Exchange Services [IFEX], which trades futures derivatives contracts to hedge against losses and damage from hurricanes and tropical storms.
|
|
Green Investors Hopeful on Eve of Inauguration
This pick is about: ASO (ASO)
| Rating: |
$21.82 (01/19/09)
|
| Closed: |
02/26/2009
@ $14.54
(+33.36%
in
38 days)
|
|
|
|
Green Investors Hopeful on Eve of Inauguration The table at my website link below includes statistics and a short description of the 20 companies included in the ETF Innovators Global Carbon Trading Index along with benchmark energy commodities and exchange-traded products. The 20 companies in the Carbon Trading Index posted a gain of 5.6% over the past month, despite declines in the overall market, the global price of carbon, and major energy commodities. With the launch of AirShares Carbon Fund (ASO) in mid-December, investors have another option to trade the price of carbon with the iPath Global Carbon ETN (GRN) already on the market since early July. As a proxy for the global price of carbon, GRN declined by about 18% in the past month while ASO debuted with a 21% decline in its first month of trading. Both exchange-traded products for the global price of carbon have failed to attract significant interest from investors and traders, with less than $5M in net assets for each product and little in the way of average trading volume. Major energy commodities also declined during the past one and six months, with the U.S. Oil (USO) and Natural Gas (UNG) Funds losing 8.8% and 14.6%, respectively, in the past month and over 60% each in the past six months. Central Appalachian Coal Futures (NYMEX: QL) declined by about 10% in the past month and 43% over the past six months. The Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy (GEX) and Environmental Services (EVX) ETFs both saw previous gains evaporate, resulting in smaller gains of 0.6% and 2.5%, respectively in the past month while the Elements Global Warming ETN (GWO) declined by about 4% in the past month and 48% in the past six months. With the inauguration set for tomorrow, green activists and investors are hopeful that the new administration will enact legislation for a cap and trade system in the U.S. to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Climate Exchange (CXCHF) represents a pure-play on the operation of financial exchanges for carbon credit trading and is poised to gain from the global expansion of carbon trading. The exchange-based trading of carbon allowances in the U.S. began this past summer with the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative [RGGI]. The 10 RGGI states in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic have enacted a voluntary, regional cap and trade system to regulate carbon dioxide emissions from power plants. The Chicago Climate Futures Exchange offers trading for RGGI futures contracts, which trade at just a fraction of the prices for the two leading proxies for the price of carbon (EUAs and CERs, which are tracked by GRN + ASO) since the caps in the U.S. are voluntary and do not represent aggressive emission reductions. As its name implies, Climate Exchange is engaged in developing financial exchanges that allow for the trading of environmental financial vehicles such as the carbon credits tracked by GRN and ASO. The Company’s three main businesses include the European Climate Exchange [ECX], the Chicago Climate Futures Exchange [CCFE], and the Chicago Climate Exchange [CCX]. The ECX operates an exchange for the European Emissions Trading Scheme while the CCFE handles environmental futures contracts in the U.S. and the CCX operates the voluntary, contract-based cap and trade system to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. Climate Exchange currently trades at a market cap of around $600M U.S. Dollars and represents the largest pure-play exchange in the emerging and fast-growing market for exchange-based trading of carbon credits and related instruments such as the Insurance Futures Exchange Services [IFEX], which trades futures derivatives contracts to hedge against losses and damage from hurricanes and tropical storms.
|
|
January 01
Carbon Trading Index Rebounds in December
This pick is about: Waste Management Inc (WMI)
| Rating: |
$33.1 (01/01/09)
|
| Closed: |
02/26/2009
@ $28.2
(-14.80%
in
56 days)
|
|
|
|
 The accompanying table [click to enlarge] includes 19 companies in the ETF Innovators [ETFI] Global Carbon Trading Index along with the prices of seven benchmark commodities and funds. The Carbon Trading Index rallied over the past month along with the overall market, although the gains were less than the overall market and the index has declined by more than 50% in the past six months. With the launch of AirShares Carbon Fund (ASO) in mid-December, investors have another option to trade the price of carbon with the iPath Global Carbon ETN (GRN) already on the market since early July. As a proxy for the global price of carbon, GRN declined by 3% in the past month and 46% in the past six months compared to a gain of 7% in the past month and a loss of 53% over the past six months for the Carbon Trading Index. Major energy commodities declined by even more than carbon during the past one and six months, with the U.S. Oil (USO) and Natural Gas (UNG) Funds, which have both declined by more than 15% in the past month and more than 63% in the past six months. Central Appalachian Coal Futures (NYMEX: QL) declined by about 8% in the past month and 56% over the past six months. The Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy (GEX) and Environmental Services (EVX) ETFs both posted impressive gains over the past month of 25.5% and 18.1%, respectively, with EVX benefiting from a large stake of about 10% in Waste Management (WMI) which rose by 13.5% in the past month. Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) rose by 24.5% in the past month, although the stock is still down by 47.4% in the past six months. CNX Gas (CXG) posted the biggest loss over the past month of the major companies in the index, declining by about 12% compared to the 9.9% gain for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY). An analyst from UBS recently downgraded CXG from buy to neutral on valuation concerns and recommended investors look for a lower entry point to buy the stock. However, the analyst was positive on the Company’s fundamentals and boosted his earnings estimate for the year by a penny to $1.55 per share while noting positives such as production growth, a clean balance sheet, consistently favorable operating results, and strong management.
|
|
Carbon Trading Index Rebounds in December
This pick is about: CNX GAS CORP (CXG)
| Rating: |
$27.45 (01/01/09)
|
| Closed: |
02/26/2009
@ $22.2
(-19.13%
in
56 days)
|
|
|
|
The accompanying table [click to enlarge] includes 19 companies in the ETF Innovators [ETFI] Global Carbon Trading Index along with the prices of seven benchmark commodities and funds. The Carbon Trading Index rallied over the past month along with the overall market, although the gains were less than the overall market and the index has declined by more than 50% in the past six months. With the launch of AirShares Carbon Fund (ASO) in mid-December, investors have another option to trade the price of carbon with the iPath Global Carbon ETN (GRN) already on the market since early July. As a proxy for the global price of carbon, GRN declined by 3% in the past month and 46% in the past six months compared to a gain of 7% in the past month and a loss of 53% over the past six months for the Carbon Trading Index. Major energy commodities declined by even more than carbon during the past one and six months, with the U.S. Oil (USO) and Natural Gas (UNG) Funds, which have both declined by more than 15% in the past month and more than 63% in the past six months. Central Appalachian Coal Futures (NYMEX: QL) declined by about 8% in the past month and 56% over the past six months. The Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy (GEX) and Environmental Services (EVX) ETFs both posted impressive gains over the past month of 25.5% and 18.1%, respectively, with EVX benefiting from a large stake of about 10% in Waste Management (WMI) which rose by 13.5% in the past month. Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) rose by 24.5% in the past month, although the stock is still down by 47.4% in the past six months. CNX Gas (CXG) posted the biggest loss over the past month of the major companies in the index, declining by about 12% compared to the 9.9% gain for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY). An analyst from UBS recently downgraded CXG from buy to neutral on valuation concerns and recommended investors look for a lower entry point to buy the stock. However, the analyst was positive on the Company’s fundamentals and boosted his earnings estimate for the year by a penny to $1.55 per share while noting positives such as production growth, a clean balance sheet, consistently favorable operating results, and strong management.
|
|
November 18
New Global Tobacco Index: Big Dividends, Solid Returns
This pick is about: Lorillard Inc. (LO)
| Rating: |
$61.67 (11/18/08)
|
| Closed: |
02/26/2009
@ $60.13
(-2.50%
in
99 days)
|
|
|
|
 The accompanying table presents the top five companies by market cap and statistics for the ETF Innovators [ETFI] Global Tobacco Index, with the Top 20 rated companies posted a small gain of 0.6% over the past year thanks to an average dividend yield of 5.7%. The Global Tobacco Index outpaced all of its benchmark ETFs on a total return basis, including Consumer Staples (XLP), Claymore/Sabrient Defensive Equity Index (DEF), Vanguard Consumer Staples (VDC), and iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend (DVY). Since the split and spin-offs of Altria Group (MO) and Philip Morris International (PM) in mid-April, both companies have lost nearly one-fourth of their market value. Altria Group appears to be the best opportunity right now for investors of the entire Global Tobacco Index with a dividend yield of nearly 8% (increased by 10% last quarter to 32 cents per share every three months), a strong U.S. Dollar, and its pending acquisition of UST Inc. (UST) to dominate the smokeless tobacco market with leading brands such as Skoal and Copenhagen.
|
|
|
|
|
You need to log in to see how similar Mike Havrilla is
to you in terms of investment style, risk profile, and other metrics.
Compare Your Portfolio With Mike Havrilla:
Enter stocks you like & get new ideas daily:
Symbols, separated by space (e.g. AAPL GOOG MSFT)
More about Mike Havrilla
Investment Style:
Aggressive
[?]
The investor is willing to take risks to achieve high returns from portfolio. Investor's holding consists of speculative stocks that will produce massive gains or losses and/or the trading strategy is focused more on short term profits rather than long term appreciation
Avg exp holding time:
384.76 days
Website:
www.BioRunUp.com
About Me:
I am a pharmacist, writer, marathon runner, and investor. Check out the Ultimate Guide to Biotech Sto
... more
I am a pharmacist, writer, marathon runner, and investor. Check out the Ultimate Guide to Biotech Stocks book and DVD at http://www.biotechguides.com
|
|
