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October 25
My 60 Defensive Growth Stock Picks at Inner8.com
This pick is about: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
| Rating: |
$60.41 (10/25/08)
|
| Closed: |
10/29/2008
@ $62.35
(+3.21%
in
4 days)
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 The accompanying table presents my 60 defensive growth stock picks at the recently launched online investing site Inner8.com , which I wrote about yesterday. My picks are focused on healthcare and consumer staples, along with some cash rich tech companies such as Microsoft (MSFT). My picks include companies across the entire spectrum of market cap and risk in the biotech industry, ranging from top performers such as Amgen (AMGN) and Celgene (CELG) to small and micro-cap picks such as Discovery Labs (DSCO), Cypress Bio (CYPB), and Javelin Pharma (JAV). Other defensive, large-cap picks include JNJ, Procter & Gamble (PG), Philip Morris International (PM), Abbott Labs (ABT), and Wal-Mart (WMT).
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Biotech Blues: Four Stocks on Sale with Hope
This pick is about: Biogen Idec Inc (BIIB)
| Rating: |
$41.21 (10/25/08)
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| Closed: |
10/29/2008
@ $39.8
(-3.42%
in
4 days)
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The following group of biotech companies have market caps of at least $300M with a one year stock price change that is below the iShares Nasdaq Biotech ETF (IBB) loss of 21.8% (Source: Google Finance, 10/25/08) with potential upside catalysts over the next year.
Alnylam Pharma (ALNY): $872M, -31.6%
Biogen Idec (BIIB): $12B, -48.4%
BioMarin Pharma (BMRN): $1.7B, -33%
Momenta Pharma (MNTA): $348M, -23.4%
Momenta and Novartis (NVS) expect to launch a generic version (M-Enoxaparin) of the injectable blood thinner Lovenox in 2009, pending approval of their ANDA by the Generic Division of the FDA. With Momenta trading in single digits again after reaching as high as $20 per share; an approval for M-Enoxaparin would be a significant catalyst since Lovenox posted sales of about $4B in the last year for Sanofi-Aventis (SNY).
Since trading into the upper $70s after putting itself up for sale, Biogen has pulled back into the lower $40s, which represents an attractive entry point on overblown PML concerns for Tysabri and its attractiveness as a takeover target. Biogen would provide a big pharma suitor with a portfolio of approved and late-stage biological agents positioned for growth in the future.
The two remaining companies on the list represent attractive takeover candidates for different reasons as BioMarin markets the high margin, orphan drug Kuvan with a pipeline of other specialized enzyme-based treatments while Alnylam offers its RNA interference [RNAi] drug discovery platform and early stage pipeline, which Merck (MRK) paid $1.1B two years ago for a similar RNAi drug discovery company Sirna Therapeutics.
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September 06
Clarity on Tysabri Makes Elan and Biogen a Buy
This pick is about: Elan Corp plc (ELN)
| Rating: |
$12.96 (09/06/08)
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| Closed: |
10/29/2008
@ $6.44
(-50.31%
in
53 days)
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The FDA has published a table with the names of products and potential signals of serious risks and/or new safety information identified for these products during 1Q08 in the AERS database. The FDA notes that patients should not stop taking these medications and should consult their prescriber with any questions as the agency will investigate each of the claims further before taking action or issuing more definitive statements on the reported concerns. Some highlights from this table of products that are sold by public-traded pharma and biotech companies are listed below in the following format: active ingredient (brand name) - company(ies) - new safety information reported. Duloxetine (Cymbalta) - Eli Lilly (LLY) - Urinary retention Heparin - Baxter (BAX) & APP Pharma (APPX) - Anaphylactic-type reactions Lapatinib (Tykerb) - GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) – Liver toxicity Lenalidomide (Revlimid) - Celgene (CELG) – skin disease caused by immune system reaction to a variety of drugs, viral infections, or other causes Natalizumab (Tysabri) - Elan (ELN) & Biogen (BIIB) - Skin melanomas Octreotide Acetate Depot (Sandostatin LAR) - Novartis (NVS) – Ileus (lack of intestinal movements) Quetiapine (Seroquel) - AstraZeneca (AZN) - Overdose due to sample pack labeling confusion Telbivudine (Tyzeka) - Novartis (NVS) - Peripheral neuropathy During trading on Friday, shares of Celgene slipped nearly 2% while Baxter and Eli Lilly lost just over 1% compared to a loss of 0.5% for the Healthcare Sector SPDR (XLV). The market value of Elan has decreased by over one-third in the past year while its partner Biogen has shed over one-fourth of its value on renewed concerns of a rare, potentially fatal brain disorder known as PML in multiple sclerosis [MS] patients taking Tysabri. In February 2005, Tysabri was voluntarily removed from the market after two cases of PML were reported. However, the FDA has recently issued a statement that the labeling will be revised for Tysabri to reflect the new cases, which occurred in patients taking the drug alone rather than previous instances in combination with other MS drugs. Since a risk minimization program for Tysabri is already in place, the FDA announcement relieved investor concerns that the drug would be pulled from the market again. However, it remains to be seen whether Tysabri can continue to gain market share for MS and expand into other uses, such as the recently launched clinical trial evaluating the drug in the treatment of the blood-based cancer multiple myeloma. Currently, Biogen does not expect to revise the label of Tysabri to reflect the two reported cases of skin cancer in letters to the editor in the New England Journal of Medicine from February 2008.
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October 25
Biotech Blues: Four Stocks on Sale with Hope
This pick is about: iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index Fund (IBB)
| Rating: |
$63.68 (10/25/08)
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| Closed: |
10/29/2008
@ $68.19
(+7.08%
in
4 days)
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The following group of biotech companies have market caps of at least $300M with a one year stock price change that is below the iShares Nasdaq Biotech ETF (IBB) loss of 21.8% (Source: Google Finance, 10/25/08) with potential upside catalysts over the next year.
Alnylam Pharma (ALNY): $872M, -31.6%
Biogen Idec (BIIB): $12B, -48.4%
BioMarin Pharma (BMRN): $1.7B, -33%
Momenta Pharma (MNTA): $348M, -23.4%
Momenta and Novartis (NVS) expect to launch a generic version (M-Enoxaparin) of the injectable blood thinner Lovenox in 2009, pending approval of their ANDA by the Generic Division of the FDA. With Momenta trading in single digits again after reaching as high as $20 per share; an approval for M-Enoxaparin would be a significant catalyst since Lovenox posted sales of about $4B in the last year for Sanofi-Aventis (SNY).
Since trading into the upper $70s after putting itself up for sale, Biogen has pulled back into the lower $40s, which represents an attractive entry point on overblown PML concerns for Tysabri and its attractiveness as a takeover target. Biogen would provide a big pharma suitor with a portfolio of approved and late-stage biological agents positioned for growth in the future.
The two remaining companies on the list represent attractive takeover candidates for different reasons as BioMarin markets the high margin, orphan drug Kuvan with a pipeline of other specialized enzyme-based treatments while Alnylam offers its RNA interference [RNAi] drug discovery platform and early stage pipeline, which Merck (MRK) paid $1.1B two years ago for a similar RNAi drug discovery company Sirna Therapeutics.
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My 60 Defensive Growth Stock Picks at Inner8.com
This pick is about: PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL INC (PM)
| Rating: |
$40.02 (10/25/08)
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| Closed: |
10/27/2008
@ $40.02
(+0.00%
in
2 days)
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The accompanying table presents my 60 defensive growth stock picks at the recently launched online investing site Inner8.com , which I wrote about yesterday. My picks are focused on healthcare and consumer staples, along with some cash rich tech companies such as Microsoft (MSFT). My picks include companies across the entire spectrum of market cap and risk in the biotech industry, ranging from top performers such as Amgen (AMGN) and Celgene (CELG) to small and micro-cap picks such as Discovery Labs (DSCO), Cypress Bio (CYPB), and Javelin Pharma (JAV). Other defensive, large-cap picks include JNJ, Procter & Gamble (PG), Philip Morris International (PM), Abbott Labs (ABT), and Wal-Mart (WMT).
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October 16
Safe Haven Tobacco Stocks Post Solid Returns & High Yield
This pick is about: Reynolds American Inc. (RAI)
| Rating: |
$42.82 (10/16/08)
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| Closed: |
10/27/2008
@ $46.11
(+7.68%
in
11 days)
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 The accompanying table presents the ETFI Global Tobacco Index of 29 companies over $100M (USD) market caps, which have posted a gain over the past year for the top 20 rated stocks and outpaced its benchmark ETFs. The top 20 rated stocks have an average dividend yield of 5.6% and only 11 of the 29 companies are listed for trading in the U.S.
Tobacco stocks have outperformed benchmark ETFs for the S&P 500 Index (SPY), iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend (DVY), and consumer staple funds such as the Consumer Staples Sector SPDR (XLP), Vanguard Consumer Staples (VDC), and iShares Global Consumer Staples (KXI). Also, the FTC has cleared the way for Altria's (MO) takeover of smokeless tobacco company UST, which is expected to close in early 2009.
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Safe Haven Tobacco Stocks Post Solid Returns & High Yield
This pick is about: Lorillard Inc. (LO)
| Rating: |
$54.51 (10/16/08)
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| Closed: |
10/27/2008
@ $57.65
(+5.76%
in
11 days)
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The accompanying table presents the ETFI Global Tobacco Index of 29 companies over $100M (USD) market caps, which have posted a gain over the past year for the top 20 rated stocks and outpaced its benchmark ETFs. The top 20 rated stocks have an average dividend yield of 5.6% and only 11 of the 29 companies are listed for trading in the U.S.
Tobacco stocks have outperformed benchmark ETFs for the S&P 500 Index (SPY), iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend (DVY), and consumer staple funds such as the Consumer Staples Sector SPDR (XLP), Vanguard Consumer Staples (VDC), and iShares Global Consumer Staples (KXI). Also, the FTC has cleared the way for Altria's (MO) takeover of smokeless tobacco company UST, which is expected to close in early 2009.
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Safe Haven Tobacco Stocks Post Solid Returns & High Yield
This pick is about: Altria Group Inc (MO)
| Rating: |
$18.79 (10/16/08)
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| Closed: |
10/27/2008
@ $18.95
(+0.85%
in
11 days)
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The accompanying table presents the ETFI Global Tobacco Index of 29 companies over $100M (USD) market caps, which have posted a gain over the past year for the top 20 rated stocks and outpaced its benchmark ETFs. The top 20 rated stocks have an average dividend yield of 5.6% and only 11 of the 29 companies are listed for trading in the U.S.
Tobacco stocks have outperformed benchmark ETFs for the S&P 500 Index (SPY), iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend (DVY), and consumer staple funds such as the Consumer Staples Sector SPDR (XLP), Vanguard Consumer Staples (VDC), and iShares Global Consumer Staples (KXI). Also, the FTC has cleared the way for Altria's (MO) takeover of smokeless tobacco company UST, which is expected to close in early 2009.
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October 25
A Commodity Fund to Track Global Coal Price
This pick is about: James River Coal Company New (JRCC)
| Rating: |
$14.23 (10/25/08)
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| Closed: |
10/26/2008
@ $14.23
(+0.00%
in
21 hours)
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The accompanying table contains a summary and statistics for 16 ETFI global equity indexes and two commodity pool fund ideas, with the short/inverse and defensive themes outpacing the overall market averages over the past year in the midst of ongoing market turmoil around the world.  Although currently out of favor with investors, new commodity pool fund ideas include timber and coal. The CoalFund is a commodity pool that is structured to track the performance of exchange-traded, near-month futures contracts for global coal prices from the following four major coal-producing/exporting regions in the world as specified below. 1.) United States (40% - 70%): NYMEX Central Appalachian Coal Futures (QL) i.) Western Rail Powder River Basin Coal Swap Futures (QP) ii.) Eastern Rail CSX Coal Swap Futures (QX) 2.) Europe (15% - 30%): Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures Rotterdam (ATW) 3.) South Africa (15% - 30%): ICE Futures Richards Bay (AFR) 4.) Asia (up to 25% when issued) (Newcastle, Australia): i.) ICE Futures – globalCOAL NEWC Index ii.) ASX Thermal FOB Newcastle Given the success of the company-based Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) and recent launch of PowerShares Global Coal ETF (PKOL), a CoalFund would provide investors with direct exposure to the price of the underlying commodity in a similar fashion to the U.S. Oil (USO) and Natural Gas (UNG) Funds, which have over a $1B in net assets each and heavy trading volumes. Given the global economic slowdown, lower commodity prices, and the cool-down in former red-hot grow markets such as China; the short indexes for passenger airlines, auto makers, maritime transport, and trucking/logistics companies posted very strong results, gaining between 27%-57% in the past year. While I am still bullish on the prospects for railroads as a long investment idea and a hedge to these short transport ETF ideas, they will also suffer to some degree depending on the length and depth of the slowdown. However, the railroad industry is more fuel efficient than trucking, is not plagued by overcapacity, and also enjoys pricing power as there is a limited amount of railroad track and little ability to add new tracks in the U.S. In the healthcare sector, both presidential candidates are bullish on Health IT spending as part of their healthcare reform proposals, with an estimated savings of $88B to the country over 10 years. While details of these plans are lacking; Senator Obama's proposal would include a $50B investment in Health IT, divided evenly over a five-year period, making this a bullish segment of the healthcare sector which also posted positive returns over the past year. Another bullish segment in healthcare is the rapidly consolidating generic drug industry, which has recently attracted the interest of Pfizer (PFE) which plans to begin selling off-patent drugs beyond its in-house Greenstone generic division. A wave of brand names representing $70B in sales are due to come off-patent through 2012 and there is also a push to increase generic substitution rates to save money for consumers and third-party payers. Other defensive industry groups represented in the table include tobacco and telco services, with average dividend yields of 5.6% and 9.3%, respectively. Also, the ETFI Highly Defensive PerformIdex includes 40 companies with market caps of at least $10B and is over-weighted in large and mega-cap consumer staples and healthcare companies based in North America and Europe.
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A Commodity Fund to Track Global Coal Price
This pick is about: PowerShares ExchangeTraded Fund Trust II PowerShares Global Coal Portfolio (PKOL)
| Rating: |
$11.74 (10/25/08)
|
| Closed: |
10/26/2008
@ $11.74
(+0.00%
in
21 hours)
|
|
|
|
The accompanying table contains a summary and statistics for 16 ETFI global equity indexes and two commodity pool fund ideas, with the short/inverse and defensive themes outpacing the overall market averages over the past year in the midst of ongoing market turmoil around the world. Although currently out of favor with investors, new commodity pool fund ideas include timber and coal. The CoalFund is a commodity pool that is structured to track the performance of exchange-traded, near-month futures contracts for global coal prices from the following four major coal-producing/exporting regions in the world as specified below. 1.) United States (40% - 70%): NYMEX Central Appalachian Coal Futures (QL) i.) Western Rail Powder River Basin Coal Swap Futures (QP) ii.) Eastern Rail CSX Coal Swap Futures (QX) 2.) Europe (15% - 30%): Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures Rotterdam (ATW) 3.) South Africa (15% - 30%): ICE Futures Richards Bay (AFR) 4.) Asia (up to 25% when issued) (Newcastle, Australia): i.) ICE Futures – globalCOAL NEWC Index ii.) ASX Thermal FOB Newcastle Given the success of the company-based Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) and recent launch of PowerShares Global Coal ETF (PKOL), a CoalFund would provide investors with direct exposure to the price of the underlying commodity in a similar fashion to the U.S. Oil (USO) and Natural Gas (UNG) Funds, which have over a $1B in net assets each and heavy trading volumes. Given the global economic slowdown, lower commodity prices, and the cool-down in former red-hot grow markets such as China; the short indexes for passenger airlines, auto makers, maritime transport, and trucking/logistics companies posted very strong results, gaining between 27%-57% in the past year. While I am still bullish on the prospects for railroads as a long investment idea and a hedge to these short transport ETF ideas, they will also suffer to some degree depending on the length and depth of the slowdown. However, the railroad industry is more fuel efficient than trucking, is not plagued by overcapacity, and also enjoys pricing power as there is a limited amount of railroad track and little ability to add new tracks in the U.S. In the healthcare sector, both presidential candidates are bullish on Health IT spending as part of their healthcare reform proposals, with an estimated savings of $88B to the country over 10 years. While details of these plans are lacking; Senator Obama's proposal would include a $50B investment in Health IT, divided evenly over a five-year period, making this a bullish segment of the healthcare sector which also posted positive returns over the past year. Another bullish segment in healthcare is the rapidly consolidating generic drug industry, which has recently attracted the interest of Pfizer (PFE) which plans to begin selling off-patent drugs beyond its in-house Greenstone generic division. A wave of brand names representing $70B in sales are due to come off-patent through 2012 and there is also a push to increase generic substitution rates to save money for consumers and third-party payers. Other defensive industry groups represented in the table include tobacco and telco services, with average dividend yields of 5.6% and 9.3%, respectively. Also, the ETFI Highly Defensive PerformIdex includes 40 companies with market caps of at least $10B and is over-weighted in large and mega-cap consumer staples and healthcare companies based in North America and Europe.
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A Commodity Fund to Track Global Coal Price
This pick is about: Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)
| Rating: |
$28.84 (10/25/08)
|
| Closed: |
10/26/2008
@ $28.84
(+0.00%
in
21 hours)
|
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|
|
The accompanying table contains a summary and statistics for 16 ETFI global equity indexes and two commodity pool fund ideas, with the short/inverse and defensive themes outpacing the overall market averages over the past year in the midst of ongoing market turmoil around the world. Although currently out of favor with investors, new commodity pool fund ideas include timber and coal. The CoalFund is a commodity pool that is structured to track the performance of exchange-traded, near-month futures contracts for global coal prices from the following four major coal-producing/exporting regions in the world as specified below. 1.) United States (40% - 70%): NYMEX Central Appalachian Coal Futures (QL) i.) Western Rail Powder River Basin Coal Swap Futures (QP) ii.) Eastern Rail CSX Coal Swap Futures (QX) 2.) Europe (15% - 30%): Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures Rotterdam (ATW) 3.) South Africa (15% - 30%): ICE Futures Richards Bay (AFR) 4.) Asia (up to 25% when issued) (Newcastle, Australia): i.) ICE Futures – globalCOAL NEWC Index ii.) ASX Thermal FOB Newcastle Given the success of the company-based Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) and recent launch of PowerShares Global Coal ETF (PKOL), a CoalFund would provide investors with direct exposure to the price of the underlying commodity in a similar fashion to the U.S. Oil (USO) and Natural Gas (UNG) Funds, which have over a $1B in net assets each and heavy trading volumes. Given the global economic slowdown, lower commodity prices, and the cool-down in former red-hot grow markets such as China; the short indexes for passenger airlines, auto makers, maritime transport, and trucking/logistics companies posted very strong results, gaining between 27%-57% in the past year. While I am still bullish on the prospects for railroads as a long investment idea and a hedge to these short transport ETF ideas, they will also suffer to some degree depending on the length and depth of the slowdown. However, the railroad industry is more fuel efficient than trucking, is not plagued by overcapacity, and also enjoys pricing power as there is a limited amount of railroad track and little ability to add new tracks in the U.S. In the healthcare sector, both presidential candidates are bullish on Health IT spending as part of their healthcare reform proposals, with an estimated savings of $88B to the country over 10 years. While details of these plans are lacking; Senator Obama's proposal would include a $50B investment in Health IT, divided evenly over a five-year period, making this a bullish segment of the healthcare sector which also posted positive returns over the past year. Another bullish segment in healthcare is the rapidly consolidating generic drug industry, which has recently attracted the interest of Pfizer (PFE) which plans to begin selling off-patent drugs beyond its in-house Greenstone generic division. A wave of brand names representing $70B in sales are due to come off-patent through 2012 and there is also a push to increase generic substitution rates to save money for consumers and third-party payers. Other defensive industry groups represented in the table include tobacco and telco services, with average dividend yields of 5.6% and 9.3%, respectively. Also, the ETFI Highly Defensive PerformIdex includes 40 companies with market caps of at least $10B and is over-weighted in large and mega-cap consumer staples and healthcare companies based in North America and Europe.
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A Commodity Fund to Track Global Coal Price
This pick is about: Select Sector SPDREnergy (XLE)
| Rating: |
$43.2 (10/25/08)
|
| Closed: |
10/26/2008
@ $43.2
(+0.00%
in
19 hours)
|
|
|
|
The accompanying table contains a summary and statistics for 16 ETFI global equity indexes and two commodity pool fund ideas, with the short/inverse and defensive themes outpacing the overall market averages over the past year in the midst of ongoing market turmoil around the world.  Although currently out of favor with investors, new commodity pool fund ideas include timber and coal. The CoalFund is a commodity pool that is structured to track the performance of exchange-traded, near-month futures contracts for global coal prices from the following four major coal-producing/exporting regions in the world as specified below. 1.) United States (40% - 70%): NYMEX Central Appalachian Coal Futures (QL) i.) Western Rail Powder River Basin Coal Swap Futures (QP) ii.) Eastern Rail CSX Coal Swap Futures (QX) 2.) Europe (15% - 30%): Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures Rotterdam (ATW) 3.) South Africa (15% - 30%): ICE Futures Richards Bay (AFR) 4.) Asia (up to 25% when issued) (Newcastle, Australia): i.) ICE Futures – globalCOAL NEWC Index ii.) ASX Thermal FOB Newcastle Given the success of the company-based Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) and recent launch of PowerShares Global Coal ETF (PKOL), a CoalFund would provide investors with direct exposure to the global price of this important energy commodity in a similar fashion to the U.S. Oil (USO) and Natural Gas (UNG) Funds, which have over a $1B in net assets each and heavy trading volumes. Given the global economic slowdown, lower commodity prices, and the cool-down in former red-hot grow markets such as China; the short indexes for passenger airlines, auto makers, maritime transport, and trucking/logistics companies posted very strong results, gaining between 27%-57% in the past year. While I am still bullish on the prospects for railroads as a long investment idea and a hedge to these short transport ETF ideas, they will also suffer to some degree depending on the length and depth of the slowdown. However, the railroad industry is more fuel efficient than trucking, is not plagued by overcapacity, and also enjoys pricing power as there is a limited amount of railroad track and little ability to add new tracks in the U.S. In the healthcare sector, both presidential candidates are bullish on Health IT spending as part of their healthcare reform proposals, with an estimated savings of $88B to the country over 10 years. While details of these plans are lacking; Senator Obama's proposal would include a $50B investment in Health IT, divided evenly over a five-year period, making this a bullish segment of the healthcare sector which also posted positive returns over the past year. Another bullish segment in healthcare is the rapidly consolidating generic drug industry, which has recently attracted the interest of Pfizer (PFE) which plans to begin selling off-patent drugs beyond its in-house Greenstone generic division. A wave of brand names representing $70B in sales are due to come off-patent through 2012 and there is also a push to increase generic substitution rates to save money for consumers and third-party payers. Other defensive industry groups represented in the table include tobacco and telco services, with average dividend yields of 5.6% and 9.3%, respectively. Also, the ETFI Highly Defensive PerformIdex includes 40 companies with market caps of at least $10B and is over-weighted in large and mega-cap consumer staples and healthcare companies based in North America and Europe.
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A Commodity Fund to Track Global Coal Price
This pick is about: United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG)
| Rating: |
$27.24 (10/25/08)
|
| Closed: |
10/26/2008
@ $27.24
(+0.00%
in
19 hours)
|
|
|
|
The accompanying table contains a summary and statistics for 16 ETFI global equity indexes and two commodity pool fund ideas, with the short/inverse and defensive themes outpacing the overall market averages over the past year in the midst of ongoing market turmoil around the world. Although currently out of favor with investors, new commodity pool fund ideas include timber and coal. The CoalFund is a commodity pool that is structured to track the performance of exchange-traded, near-month futures contracts for global coal prices from the following four major coal-producing/exporting regions in the world as specified below. 1.) United States (40% - 70%): NYMEX Central Appalachian Coal Futures (QL) i.) Western Rail Powder River Basin Coal Swap Futures (QP) ii.) Eastern Rail CSX Coal Swap Futures (QX) 2.) Europe (15% - 30%): Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures Rotterdam (ATW) 3.) South Africa (15% - 30%): ICE Futures Richards Bay (AFR) 4.) Asia (up to 25% when issued) (Newcastle, Australia): i.) ICE Futures – globalCOAL NEWC Index ii.) ASX Thermal FOB Newcastle Given the success of the company-based Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) and recent launch of PowerShares Global Coal ETF (PKOL), a CoalFund would provide investors with direct exposure to the global price of this important energy commodity in a similar fashion to the U.S. Oil (USO) and Natural Gas (UNG) Funds, which have over a $1B in net assets each and heavy trading volumes. Given the global economic slowdown, lower commodity prices, and the cool-down in former red-hot grow markets such as China; the short indexes for passenger airlines, auto makers, maritime transport, and trucking/logistics companies posted very strong results, gaining between 27%-57% in the past year. While I am still bullish on the prospects for railroads as a long investment idea and a hedge to these short transport ETF ideas, they will also suffer to some degree depending on the length and depth of the slowdown. However, the railroad industry is more fuel efficient than trucking, is not plagued by overcapacity, and also enjoys pricing power as there is a limited amount of railroad track and little ability to add new tracks in the U.S. In the healthcare sector, both presidential candidates are bullish on Health IT spending as part of their healthcare reform proposals, with an estimated savings of $88B to the country over 10 years. While details of these plans are lacking; Senator Obama's proposal would include a $50B investment in Health IT, divided evenly over a five-year period, making this a bullish segment of the healthcare sector which also posted positive returns over the past year. Another bullish segment in healthcare is the rapidly consolidating generic drug industry, which has recently attracted the interest of Pfizer (PFE) which plans to begin selling off-patent drugs beyond its in-house Greenstone generic division. A wave of brand names representing $70B in sales are due to come off-patent through 2012 and there is also a push to increase generic substitution rates to save money for consumers and third-party payers. Other defensive industry groups represented in the table include tobacco and telco services, with average dividend yields of 5.6% and 9.3%, respectively. Also, the ETFI Highly Defensive PerformIdex includes 40 companies with market caps of at least $10B and is over-weighted in large and mega-cap consumer staples and healthcare companies based in North America and Europe.
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A Commodity Fund to Track Global Coal Price
This pick is about: United States Oil Fund LP (USO)
| Rating: |
$51.44 (10/25/08)
|
| Closed: |
10/26/2008
@ $51.44
(+0.00%
in
19 hours)
|
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The accompanying table contains a summary and statistics for 16 ETFI global equity indexes and two commodity pool fund ideas, with the short/inverse and defensive themes outpacing the overall market averages over the past year in the midst of ongoing market turmoil around the world. Although currently out of favor with investors, new commodity pool fund ideas include timber and coal. The CoalFund is a commodity pool that is structured to track the performance of exchange-traded, near-month futures contracts for global coal prices from the following four major coal-producing/exporting regions in the world as specified below. 1.) United States (40% - 70%): NYMEX Central Appalachian Coal Futures (QL) i.) Western Rail Powder River Basin Coal Swap Futures (QP) ii.) Eastern Rail CSX Coal Swap Futures (QX) 2.) Europe (15% - 30%): Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures Rotterdam (ATW) 3.) South Africa (15% - 30%): ICE Futures Richards Bay (AFR) 4.) Asia (up to 25% when issued) (Newcastle, Australia): i.) ICE Futures – globalCOAL NEWC Index ii.) ASX Thermal FOB Newcastle Given the success of the company-based Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) and recent launch of PowerShares Global Coal ETF (PKOL), a CoalFund would provide investors with direct exposure to the global price of this important energy commodity in a similar fashion to the U.S. Oil (USO) and Natural Gas (UNG) Funds, which have over a $1B in net assets each and heavy trading volumes. Given the global economic slowdown, lower commodity prices, and the cool-down in former red-hot grow markets such as China; the short indexes for passenger airlines, auto makers, maritime transport, and trucking/logistics companies posted very strong results, gaining between 27%-57% in the past year. While I am still bullish on the prospects for railroads as a long investment idea and a hedge to these short transport ETF ideas, they will also suffer to some degree depending on the length and depth of the slowdown. However, the railroad industry is more fuel efficient than trucking, is not plagued by overcapacity, and also enjoys pricing power as there is a limited amount of railroad track and little ability to add new tracks in the U.S. In the healthcare sector, both presidential candidates are bullish on Health IT spending as part of their healthcare reform proposals, with an estimated savings of $88B to the country over 10 years. While details of these plans are lacking; Senator Obama's proposal would include a $50B investment in Health IT, divided evenly over a five-year period, making this a bullish segment of the healthcare sector which also posted positive returns over the past year. Another bullish segment in healthcare is the rapidly consolidating generic drug industry, which has recently attracted the interest of Pfizer (PFE) which plans to begin selling off-patent drugs beyond its in-house Greenstone generic division. A wave of brand names representing $70B in sales are due to come off-patent through 2012 and there is also a push to increase generic substitution rates to save money for consumers and third-party payers. Other defensive industry groups represented in the table include tobacco and telco services, with average dividend yields of 5.6% and 9.3%, respectively. Also, the ETFI Highly Defensive PerformIdex includes 40 companies with market caps of at least $10B and is over-weighted in large and mega-cap consumer staples and healthcare companies based in North America and Europe.
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September 02
Declining Oil Prices and Political Uncertainties Continue to Pressure RSX
This pick is about: Market Vectors Russia ETF Trust (RSX)
| Rating: |
$38.92 (09/02/08)
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| Closed: |
10/25/2008
@ $11.67
(+70.02%
in
53 days)
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The links below represent a Yahoo! Finance ETF screener which is sorted from highest to lowest net assets for each of the categories - I will also add these links to the "Links and Resources" drop-down menu at ETFRx.com : Healthcare Financial Natural Resources Technology ProShares (Leveraged and Inverse Funds) Select Sector SPDR Funds Entire Database of Funds As I wrote during the last week of July, my favorite ETF picks are in the healthcare sector, representing the top three HealthShares by net assets, which includes Diagnostics (HHD), Cancer (HHK), and Enabling Technologies (HHV) -- which will all remain on the market in an expanded, modified form with lower expense ratios as XShares recently announced it was closing 15 of the 19 funds in its health line-up as part of a marketing overhaul. When trading resumes on Monday, it appears the energy sector and related commodities will be weak due to less-than-expected damage from Hurricane Gustav today, which had oil moving lower in electronic trading on the Labor Day holiday. ETFs likely to move lower include the US Oil (USO) and Natural Gas (UNG) Funds along with the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE). Lower energy commodity prices and political uncertainties are also likely to continue weighing on the Russia ETF (RSX) as pressure mounts for a complete pull back from Georgia by EU & US leaders.
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September 30
The Fear Trade: Investors Pile into Gold and Treasuries
This pick is about: Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX)
| Rating: |
$51.0 (09/30/08)
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| Closed: |
10/25/2008
@ $26.44
(+48.16%
in
25 days)
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The Dow suffered its biggest one-day point drop in history (although not even close on a percentage loss basis) as investors moved out of stocks into tradition safe havens such as Treasuries and gold (GLD). The failure of Congress to approve the $700B bailout package stunned investors as lawmakers worked through the weekend and practically around the clock to put together a plan that was widely expected to pass. The Senate will return Wednesday night while the House meets again this Thursday following the Jewish New Year holiday recession. In other signs of worry over a worsening global economic recession, the U.S. Oil Fund (USO) lost more than 10%, the Baltic Dry Index slipped to multi-year lows, the iShares Emerging Markets Index (EEM) was down over 11%, and the Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX) was down over 16%. Very few stocks closed in the green today, but among stocks that I track BioSante Pharma (BPAX) surged by over 16% on over four times its average volume without any news releases to account for the move. I plan to focus on the small and micro-cap biotech space since these companies trade in their own universe for the most part based on their clinical development milestones. I own shares of Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX), which had a mid-day surge in the midst of the market sell-off, but still ended the day in the red on light volume. Overall, I am still very cautious on the market and will keep most of my money in cash until the market stabilizes. Related Articles and Links from my Blog: Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX) BioSante Pharma (BPAX) Crude Oil Gold
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August 19
Russia ETF Trading Down On Political Concerns And Decline In Commodities
This pick is about: Select Sector SPDREnergy (XLE)
| Rating: |
$71.36 (08/19/08)
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| Closed: |
10/25/2008
@ $43.2
(+39.46%
in
67 days)
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 The Market Vectors Russia [product website web link] (RSX) has been trading in the red lately as illustrated in the three-month chart due to a downtrend in energy commodity prices – as the ETF has a 38.9% concentration in oil and gas companies – and the invasion of Georgia. The Russia ETF is dominated (95%) by large caps, defined in this fund as companies over $6 billion market caps, of which over two-thirds are commodity-related (energy, metals, and agriculture). The fund is also facing headwinds from a 28.4% weighting in iron/steel and agricultural companies because of the overall decline in commodities . The accompanying chart reveals a decline of about 30% over the last three months for the Russia ETF as compared to declines of about 10% and 20% for the S&P 500 Index and Energy Sector SPDR, respectively. Aside from the recent decline in commodities, investors appear to be bailing on concerns that Russia is returning to old ways of bullying its much smaller neighbors through military actions. Given the political uncertainties and decline in commodities, I would stay away from the Russia ETF until these two key factors change in favor of the fund.
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October 15
Carbon ETN: Solid Returns, Few Investors
This pick is about: United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG)
| Rating: |
$29.44 (10/15/08)
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| Closed: |
10/25/2008
@ $27.24
(-7.47%
in
10 days)
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 Despite attracting little in the way of investor interest in terms of trading volume and net assets, the iPath Global Carbon ETN (GRN) has outpaced the S&P 500 Index, U.S. Oil Fund (USO), U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG), and Central Appalachian Coal Futures (QL) (down 28.5%) over the past three months. Since diverging from oil and natural gas in late July, the global price of carbon is still trading above its low point at that time despite a global unwind of leverage which has hit commodities especially hard. Investors should also note that since GRN is structured as an ETN, it is a debt obligation of Barclays (BCS) which has lost nearly two-thirds of its value in the past year. This distinction may also be a factor in the hesitance of investors to commit capital to GRN since its launch this summer, as the ETN only has about $6.5M in net assets and a 20-day average trading volume of about 2,300 shares. However, XShares has a similar product in registration called AirShares which is structured as a commodity pool fund and may prove to be more popular with investors. With the price of natural gas lagging coal; it is cheaper for utilities in Europe to simply switch to burning more gas to generate power which results in less greenhouse gas emissions and less demand for carbon credits. However, as illustrated in the accompanying 3-month chart, GRN has broken away from its initial correlation to key energy commodities as tracked by the U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Funds.
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Carbon ETN: Solid Returns, Few Investors
This pick is about: United States Oil Fund LP (USO)
| Rating: |
$60.33 (10/15/08)
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| Closed: |
10/25/2008
@ $51.44
(+14.74%
in
10 days)
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Despite attracting little in the way of investor interest in terms of trading volume and net assets, the iPath Global Carbon ETN (GRN) has outpaced the S&P 500 Index, U.S. Oil Fund (USO), U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG), and Central Appalachian Coal Futures (QL) (down 28.5%) over the past three months. Since diverging from oil and natural gas in late July, the global price of carbon is still trading above its low point at that time despite a global unwind of leverage which has hit commodities especially hard. Investors should also note that since GRN is structured as an ETN, it is a debt obligation of Barclays (BCS) which has lost nearly two-thirds of its value in the past year. This distinction may also be a factor in the hesitance of investors to commit capital to GRN since its launch this summer, as the ETN only has about $6.5M in net assets and a 20-day average trading volume of about 2,300 shares. However, XShares has a similar product in registration called AirShares which is structured as a commodity pool fund and may prove to be more popular with investors. With the price of natural gas lagging coal; it is cheaper for utilities in Europe to simply switch to burning more gas to generate power which results in less greenhouse gas emissions and less demand for carbon credits. However, as illustrated in the accompanying 3-month chart, GRN has broken away from its initial correlation to key energy commodities as tracked by the U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Funds.
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October 25
My 60 Defensive Growth Stock Picks at Inner8.com
This pick is about: Pfizer Inc (PFE)
| Rating: |
$16.3 (10/25/08)
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| Closed: |
10/25/2008
@ $16.3
(+0.00%
in
19 hours)
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The accompanying table presents my 60 defensive growth stock picks at the recently launched online investing site Inner8.com , which I wrote about yesterday. My picks are focused on healthcare and consumer staples, along with some cash rich tech companies such as Microsoft (MSFT). My picks include companies across the entire spectrum of market cap and risk in the biotech industry, ranging from top performers such as Amgen (AMGN) and Celgene (CELG) to small and micro-cap picks such as Discovery Labs (DSCO), Cypress Bio (CYPB), and Javelin Pharma (JAV). Other defensive, large-cap picks include JNJ, Procter & Gamble (PG), Philip Morris International (PM), Abbott Labs (ABT), and Wal-Mart (WMT).
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More about Mike Havrilla
Investment Style:
Aggressive
[?]
The investor is willing to take risks to achieve high returns from portfolio. Investor's holding consists of speculative stocks that will produce massive gains or losses and/or the trading strategy is focused more on short term profits rather than long term appreciation
Avg exp holding time:
384.29 days
Website:
www.BioRunUp.com
About Me:
I am a pharmacist, writer, marathon runner, and investor. Check out the Ultimate Guide to Biotech Sto
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I am a pharmacist, writer, marathon runner, and investor. Check out the Ultimate Guide to Biotech Stocks book and DVD at http://www.biotechguides.com
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