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Mike Havrilla doesn't have an active pick right now.
September 05
Regional Banks Continue to Languish
This pick is about: Select Sector SPDRFinancial (XLF)
| Rating: |
$21.74 (09/05/08)
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| Closed: |
09/19/2008
@ $20.01
(+7.96%
in
14 days)
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Regional Bank Short Index: Stats & Benchmarks  Top 5 Companies by Largest 1-Year Stock Price Decline
The accompanying tables present an overview of a U.S. Regional Bank Short Index of 102 companies between market caps of $500 million to $20 billion. The two worst-performing stocks were both down over 80% in the past year, including Washington Mutual (WM) and National City (NCC). The 40 lowest-rated companies in the index posted a loss of 47.6% over the past year, which outpaces the losses of benchmark funds such as the KBW Regional Bank ETF (KRE) and the Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH). As an inverse/short index, the 40 lowest rated stocks performed even better than the leveraged/inverse UltraShort Financial ProShares (SKF), which posted a gain of 32.7% over the past year. Regional banks are likely to continue struggling given the continued housing recession, rising unemployment, and other uncertainties facing the domestic economy and consumers.
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September 18
Discovery Labs Looking for Surfaxin Approval by EOY
This pick is about: Discovery Laboratories Inc. (DSCO)
| Rating: |
$2.01 (09/18/08)
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| Closed: |
09/18/2008
@ $2.01
(+0.00%
in
1 hour)
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Since meeting with the FDA in mid-June, the Company has trended lower on investor disappointment that the Company would delay its response to the most recent approvable ruling for Surfaxin until September. However, the Company still expects a Class I review (60 days), which could result in approval for Surfaxin by late November or early December without the need for additional time-consuming and expensive clinical trials as the outstanding issues appear to be minor with the FDA. Summer is typically a slow time for biotech trading and provides a good time to accumulate shares ahead of potential Surfaxin approval before the end of the year, which could result in a two-bagger trade from current levels.
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July 15
This pick is about: Discovery Laboratories Inc. (DSCO)
| Rating: |
$1.57 (07/15/08)
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| Closed: |
09/18/2008
@ $2.01
(+28.03%
in
65 days)
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September 10
A Fiasco in Financials
This pick is about: Washington Mutual Inc (WM)
| Rating: |
$1.86 (09/10/08)
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| Closed: |
09/18/2008
@ $4.86
(-161.29%
in
8 days)
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Regional Bank Short Index: Stats & Benchmarks  Top 5 Companies by Largest 1-Year Stock Price Decline  After a brief, one-day rally in the financial sector following the Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) bailout on Sunday, companies such as Lehman Brothers (LEH) and Washington Mutual (WM) have lost over 47% and 57% of their market value, respectively, compared to a 5% loss in the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) over the last five trading days. In contrast, the UltraShort Financials ProShares ETF (SKF) is up 6% in this time frame and offers traders who are bearish on the sector an alternative to shorting individual stocks.
The accompanying tables present an overview of a U.S. Regional Bank Short Index of 102 companies between market caps of $500 million to $20 billion. The two worst-performing stocks were both down over 80% in the past year, including Washington Mutual (WM) and National City (NCC). The 40 lowest-rated companies in the index posted a loss of 47.6% over the past year, which outpaces the losses of benchmark funds such as the KBW Regional Bank ETF (KRE) and the Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH). As an inverse/short index, the 40 lowest rated stocks performed even better than the leveraged/inverse UltraShort Financial ProShares (SKF), which posted a gain of 32.7% over the past year. Regional banks are likely to continue struggling given the continued housing recession, rising unemployment, and other uncertainties facing the domestic economy and consumers.
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September 16
Avistar, IBM to Provide Bandwidth Management for Unified Communications
This pick is about: Avistar Communications Corp. (AVSR)
| Rating: |
$1.32 (09/16/08)
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| Closed: |
09/18/2008
@ $1.53
(+15.91%
in
2 days)
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Avistar, IBM to Provide Bandwidth Management for Unified Communications Avistar to Exhibit at Interop New York , Sept. 15-19 at Booth #1143 San Mateo , Calif. – September 16, 2008 – Avistar Communications Corporation (Nasdaq: AVSR), today announced that it will be working with IBM to provide bandwidth management for unified communications and collaboration solutions. As part of this work, Avistar’s C3’s dynamic bandwidth management technology is being licensed by IBM. The goal of this relationship is to help customers take full advantage of their unified communications capabilities – including videoconferencing -- without experiencing degradation of service or investing in network upgrades or additional overhead. “Many industry vendors claim VoIP and desktop videoconferencing capabilities, but the reality is that they are unable to deliver rich media at scale without significant network upgrades,” said Simon Moss, CEO, Avistar. Moss added, “This relationship with IBM is another significant milestone in Avistar’s efforts to power important unified communications software in the industry through the creative deployment of patented technology.” Videoconferencing is a dynamic area of the unified communications (UC) market, which is estimated by Wainhouse Research to reach $30-40 billion by 2011 . Unified communications is the integration of instant messaging (IM), videoconferencing, web conferencing, telephony, email, business applications and voice into one user-friendly experience. The cornerstone of IBM’s unified communications strategy is IBM Lotus Sametime, an award-winning and market-leading platform that offers integrated, enterprise unified communications tools such as IM, VoIP, video chats and web conferencing. “We are impressed with how Avistar’s dynamic bandwidth technology helps ensure optimum network quality and integrates well with other applications,” said Bruce Morse, vice president of unified communications and collaboration, IBM Lotus. “Working together, we hope to solve some of the toughest bandwidth management challenges plaguing the industry, helping our customers become more efficient and productive in their communications.” “Avistar’s partnership with IBM Lotus and Sametime represents a win for both companies,” said Ira Weinstein, senior analyst and partner, Wainhouse Research. “The integration of Avistar’s bandwidth management technology into future IBM Lotus unified communications offerings paves the way for large scale visual collaboration by allowing rich media traffic and standard data traffic to safely share the same production network.” Patent protected dynamic bandwidth management is a key feature of Avistar’s award-winning C3 videoconferencing technology. It is a collection of integrated dynamic software mechanisms and algorithms that control and manage bandwidth used by unified communications and distributed applications. The technology makes intelligent and automatic adjustments to support connections with external VoIP services, video within web-based instant messaging clients, room-based videoconferencing systems and high-end high-definition telepresence environments. These session-management tasks help to optimize the quality of experience, without compromising performance, impacting other applications or requiring expensive network upgrades and overhead.
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September 05
Regional Banks Continue to Languish
This pick is about: UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF)
| Rating: |
$112.7 (09/05/08)
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| Closed: |
09/18/2008
@ $131.14999
(+16.37%
in
13 days)
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Regional Bank Short Index: Stats & Benchmarks Top 5 Companies by Largest 1-Year Stock Price Decline
The accompanying tables present an overview of a U.S. Regional Bank Short Index of 102 companies between market caps of $500 million to $20 billion. The two worst-performing stocks were both down over 80% in the past year, including Washington Mutual (WM) and National City (NCC). The 40 lowest-rated companies in the index posted a loss of 47.6% over the past year, which outpaces the losses of benchmark funds such as the KBW Regional Bank ETF (KRE) and the Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH). As an inverse/short index, the 40 lowest rated stocks performed even better than the leveraged/inverse UltraShort Financial ProShares (SKF), which posted a gain of 32.7% over the past year. Regional banks are likely to continue struggling given the continued housing recession, rising unemployment, and other uncertainties facing the domestic economy and consumers.
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September 18
Investors Flee Stocks for Gold and Safe Havens
This pick is about: United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG)
| Rating: |
$37.07 (09/18/08)
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| Closed: |
09/18/2008
@ $37.07
(+0.00%
in
0 minute)
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 With no signs of relief from the latest round of the ongoing financial crisis and global equity market meltdown this week, the accompanying five-day chart highlights a stock and some funds registering impressive gains in the face of massive losses in former blue chips and mega-cap stocks such as AIG. Thanks to the biggest one-day gain ever for gold today, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) lead the gainers with an advance exceeding 15% over the last five days. As investors flee to traditional safe havens such as U.S. Treasury Bonds (pushing three-month yields to near zero ) and gold; the precious metals trade is back in a big way and also included a gain of nearly 15% today for iShares Silver Trust (SLV). PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) lost over 2% today, but is still up about 1% on a year-to-date basis. However, the massive movement back into precious metals today suggests the U.S. Dollar could be in for rough times ahead with a growing federal budget deficit , the recent bailouts of Fannie/Freddie + AIG (an associated debts), and renewed risk aversion by investors for all things associated with major liabilities and uncertainties. Until the financial crisis shows definitive signs of reversing, the UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) also provides an excellent trading vehicle to short the entire sector on a leveraged basis without the need for a margin account or trying to find shares to borrow for a single-company short position. Energy commodities such as oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) also reversed recent declines and rallied today with gains of over 3% and 8%, respectively. The U.S. Natural Gas Fund is well off its 52-week highs near $64 and is trading flat on a year-to-date basis and I think it will outperform the U.S. Oil Fund on increased seasonal demand this winter and lingering disruptions to supply stockpiles from Hurricane Ike. The only company included in the five-day chart is Avistar Communications (AVSR), which I first highlighted on September 10 after the Company signed a technology licensing deal with IBM. Avistar conducted a conference call earlier today to provide investors with an update on their business strategy – including the most recent IBM deal, the awarding of U.S. technology patents, the regaining of Nasdaq listing compliance, and providing a bullish outlook on 3Q08 operating results which are due in mid-October.
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Investors Flee Stocks for Gold and Safe Havens
This pick is about: United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG)
| Rating: |
$37.07 (09/18/08)
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| Closed: |
09/18/2008
@ $37.07
(+0.00%
in
1 minute)
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With no signs of relief from the latest round of the ongoing financial crisis and global equity market meltdown this week, the accompanying five-day chart highlights a stock and some funds registering impressive gains in the face of massive losses in former blue chips and mega-cap stocks such as AIG. Thanks to the biggest one-day gain ever for gold today, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) lead the gainers with an advance exceeding 15% over the last five days. As investors flee to traditional safe havens such as U.S. Treasury Bonds (pushing three-month yields to near zero ) and gold; the precious metals trade is back in a big way and also included a gain of nearly 15% today for iShares Silver Trust (SLV). PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) lost over 2% today, but is still up about 1% on a year-to-date basis. However, the massive movement back into precious metals today suggests the U.S. Dollar could be in for rough times ahead with a growing federal budget deficit , the recent bailouts of Fannie/Freddie + AIG (an associated debts), and renewed risk aversion by investors for all things associated with major liabilities and uncertainties. Until the financial crisis shows definitive signs of reversing, the UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) also provides an excellent trading vehicle to short the entire sector on a leveraged basis without the need for a margin account or trying to find shares to borrow for a single-company short position. Energy commodities such as oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) also reversed recent declines and rallied today with gains of over 3% and 8%, respectively. The U.S. Natural Gas Fund is well off its 52-week highs near $64 and is trading flat on a year-to-date basis and I think it will outperform the U.S. Oil Fund on increased seasonal demand this winter and lingering disruptions to supply stockpiles from Hurricane Ike. The only company included in the five-day chart is Avistar Communications (AVSR), which I first highlighted on September 10 after the Company signed a technology licensing deal with IBM. Avistar conducted a conference call earlier today to provide investors with an update on their business strategy – including the most recent IBM deal, the awarding of U.S. technology patents, the regaining of Nasdaq listing compliance, and providing a bullish outlook on 3Q08 operating results which are due in mid-October.
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August 25
Carbon ETN Holds Steady as Oil Drifts Lower
This pick is about: United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG)
| Rating: |
$38.72 (08/25/08)
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| Closed: |
09/18/2008
@ $37.07
(-4.26%
in
24 days)
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 The accompanying three month chart comparison illustrates that carbon prices, as tracked by iPath Global Carbon (GRN), have continued to diverge and outperform both oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) as reported in my original article two weeks ago. In addition, the Central Appalachian Coal Futures near-month contract ( NYMEX: QL ) is up 11.8% over the last three months. Key factors in the demand for carbon credits include overall power demand and the relationship between natural gas and coal prices since burning gas results in the release of less than half of the greenhouse emissions versus coal. Currently, the simplest way for power utilities to reduce greenhouse emissions is to convert from coal to gas. Since natural gas prices have declined in sympathy with oil while coal prices have remained at high levels, power companies in Europe have shifted to burning a larger percentage of gas to generate power -- resulting in less greenhouse emissions and thus less demand for carbon credits. Since my original article, carbon allowance futures have begun trading in the United States at both the Chicago Climate Exchange and the NYMEX Green Exchange . However, these carbon allowances are priced much lower and are not easily accessible to retail investors, if at all; so the best choice for investors who are bullish on the price of carbon credits is to simply buy the iPath Global Carbon along with some of companies in my Global Carbon Trading Index . The iPath Global Carbon ETN provides exposure to the two most established and liquid proxies for carbon prices: 1.) European Union Allowances or EUAs (which are tradable emission credits from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme providing the right to emit one ton of CO2, representing 82% of GRN) 2.) Certified Emission Reductions or CERs (which are credits generated under Kyoto’s Clean Development Mechanism for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions equal to one ton of CO2-equivalents, representing the other 18% of GRN).
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September 11
A Commodity Meltdown
This pick is about: UUP (UUP)
| Rating: |
$24.83 (09/11/08)
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| Closed: |
09/18/2008
@ $23.74
(-4.39%
in
7 days)
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 The accompanying three-month chart illustrates a steadily strengthening US Dollar (UUP) along with a broad-based meltdown in the prices of commodities. The U.S. Oil (USO) and Natural Gas (UNG) Funds are down over 20% and 40%, respectively, while SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and PowerShares DB Agricultural Commodities (DBA) are both down over 10% in the last three months. The correction in commodities reflects concerns over a global economic slowdown, a strengthening U.S. Dollar (with the Euro slipping below the $1.40 mark), and a drastic run-up in prices which proved to be unsustainable. London crude oil is trading this morning below $100 despite an output cut by OPEC and looming Hurricane Ike which is expected to make landfall Saturday morning in the Houston-Galveston area in Texas -- threatening damage to oil refining and natural gas infrastructure in the Gulf Coast region.
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A Commodity Meltdown
This pick is about: streetTRACKS Gold (GLD)
| Rating: |
$73.61 (09/11/08)
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| Closed: |
09/18/2008
@ $85.49
(-16.14%
in
7 days)
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The accompanying three-month chart illustrates a steadily strengthening US Dollar (UUP) along with a broad-based meltdown in the prices of commodities. The U.S. Oil (USO) and Natural Gas (UNG) Funds are down over 20% and 40%, respectively, while SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and PowerShares DB Agricultural Commodities (DBA) are both down over 10% in the last three months. The correction in commodities reflects concerns over a global economic slowdown, a strengthening U.S. Dollar (with the Euro slipping below the $1.40 mark), and a drastic run-up in prices which proved to be unsustainable. London crude oil is trading this morning below $100 despite an output cut by OPEC and looming Hurricane Ike which is expected to make landfall Saturday morning in the Houston-Galveston area in Texas -- threatening damage to oil refining and natural gas infrastructure in the Gulf Coast region.
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September 12
eWeek Review of Etelos PAAS Offerings
This pick is about: Etelos Inc. (ETLOE)
| Rating: |
$4.0 (09/12/08)
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| Closed: |
09/16/2008
@ $3.0
(-25.00%
in
4 days)
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 Unlike rivals such as Amazon.com (AMZN), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Google (GOOG), Etelos (OTCBB: ETLO) is offering developers a way to move their LAMP-based software to the cloud with little modification needed. Etelos also has services for helping developers sell, license and scale Web applications. Platform-as-a-service providers [PAAS], such as Salesforce.com, Amazon.com and Google, offer developers a means of coding their applications and allowing a provider in the cloud to not only handle the details of hosting and scaling these works, but make them available for sale as well. Etelos is a PAAS provider with a familiar twist. Where other frameworks require developers to code parts of their applications to work with the cloud service in question, Etelos' development environments enable software makers to bring their standard LAMP (Linux, Apache, MySQL and PHP/Python/Perl)-type applications to the cloud with little or no modification required. What sets Etelos apart from a traditional LAMP hosting service, such as DreamHost, are the services that the firm wraps around LAMP for selling, managing licensing and accounting for scalability of Web applications. In addition, Etelos has some interesting services in the works (which I did not test) for sharing data between separate applications and for enabling applications to run offline. Based on the time I spent with Etelos' platform, I can suggest that companies or departments seeking no-hassle, flexible hosting of common open-source or built-in-house Web applications take a closer look at what Etelos has to offer. As a means of demonstrating its platform, Etelos sells on-demand versions of a few popular open-source Web applications, including MediaWiki, WordPress and Sugar CRM community edition. I opted to take Etelos' MediaWiki offering for a spin to get a feel for the platform and perhaps move a MediaWiki instance I currently host in our lab out into the cloud. Etelos' MediaWiki to Go, which is priced at $4.95 per month and includes 5GB of storage (additional storage costs 34 cents per gigabyte per month), was as easy to set up as its "on-demand" label would suggest. I created a user account at Etelos' Web site and selected the MediaWiki service from the firm's applications marketplace, and within a couple of minutes I received a welcome message in my e-mail with my new wiki site's address and log-on information.Among those details was a pointer to my own Etelos Development Environment, a Web-based console for accessing and editing the files and folders that comprised my MediaWiki installation, for administering my database instance and for accessing other Etelos functionality. My on-demand MediaWiki installation came with a PostgreSQL database, which I could administer with the popular Web-based phpPgAdmin tool. The folder that housed my project code was deployed by default in a Subversion repository, which kept track of my files' versions whether I edited them using the Web interface, the provided WebDAV (Web-based Distributed Authoring and Versioning) interface or a standard Subversion client on my local computer. Due to a bug, Ubuntu Linux annoyingly lacks support for SSL (Secure Sockets Layer) WebDAV folders right now, so I opted for a local Subversion client to manage my code. I checked out the remote files to my notebook computer using a Subversion client and set about making my modifications locally, before committing them back into my site hosted at Etelos. I ran into a software snag when I set out to install the Semantic MediaWiki extension on my Etelos-hosted instance, since the latest version of SMW does not support PostgreSQL. Since MySQL is the primary database for MediaWiki, and most deployments and development are tied to MySQL, MySQL would have been a better choice for the on-demand service. However, this incompatibility gave me a good reason to try the MySQL flavor of Etelos' developer kit—currently free to use. Spawning myself a developer kit account was as easy as ordering up the MediaWiki service had been, and my new developer kit greeted me with all the same access options and Web-based tools that came with the MediaWiki service. For a flash demo of Etelos' developer kit, go here. Part of the Etelos pitch is that LAMP applications install on the platform with little or no code changes, and this was certainly my experience installing MediaWiki. To install the application, I committed the MediaWiki code into my development account with Subversion, visited the Web address of my new account and set about configuring my new instance through the software's Web setup interface. I grabbed the database name, user name and password for my MySQL instance from the "info" tab of the EDE, and adjusted the permissions on MediaWiki's config directory to allow the setup script to do its work. From here, I was able to install my desired Semantic MediaWiki extension without issues. Review written by eWeek.com [link to article] Labs Executive Editor Jason Brooks [email link].
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Avistar Conference Call Scheduled for Wed-17-Sep
This pick is about: Avistar Communications Corp. (AVSR)
| Rating: |
$1.35 (09/12/08)
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| Closed: |
09/16/2008
@ $1.32
(-2.22%
in
4 days)
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 Avistar Communications (Nasdaq: AVSR), a provider of unified visual communications solutions, today announced that it will conduct a conference call at 1:00 pm Eastern time on September 17, 2008 to discuss the Company’s progress in relation to previously identified milestones, including the recently concluded technology licensing agreement with IBM Corporation. To participate in the conference call, please dial toll-free 877. 681. 3374. Investors may also access a live audio webcast of this conference call through the Investor Relations section of the Company’s website. Avistar creates technology that provides the missing critical element in unified communications: bringing people in organizations face-to-face, through enhanced communications, for true collaboration anytime, anyplace. Its latest product, Avistar C3, draws on over a decade of market experience to deliver a single-click desktop videoconferencing and collaboration experience that moves business communications into a new era. Available as a stand-alone solution, or integrated with existing unified communications software from other vendors, Avistar C3 users gain instant messaging-style ability to initiate video communications across and outside the enterprise. Patented bandwidth management enables thousands of users to access desktop videoconferencing, Voice over IP (VoIP) and streaming media, without requiring substantial new network investment or impairing network performance. Avistar’s desktop videoconferencing and collaboration installations are among the world’s largest, including more than 18,000 seats sold in more than 40 countries. Clients report as much as a 20 percent reduction in travel expense and carbon emissions, increases in productivity, and immeasurably improved relationship building within their organizations, as well as with suppliers and customers. Avistar holds a portfolio of 83 patents for inventions in video and network technology and licenses IP to videoconferencing, rich-media services, public networking and related industries. Current licensees include IBM Corporation, Sony Corporation, Sony Computer Entertainment Inc. (SCEI), Polycom, Inc., Tandberg ASA, Radvision Ltd. LifeSize Communications, Inc., and Emblaze-VCON. Press/Investor Contact: Bob Habig Avistar Communications Corp. +1 650.525.3310
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September 14
Autos & Airlines: Next in Line for Government Aid
This pick is about: Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)
| Rating: |
$15.75 (09/14/08)
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| Closed: |
09/16/2008
@ $15.78
(+0.19%
in
2 days)
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Top 5 Auto Makers by Market Cap  Top 5 Airlines by Market Cap  The U.S. auto industry is poised to begin lobbying Congress for up to $50 billion in low interest loans to help them better compete in the global market by upgrading manufacturing facilities and paving the way for the production of vehicles with better fuel efficiency. Last year, Congress authorized $25 billion as part of an energy bill aimed at producing electric and hybrid vehicles, but auto makers are looking to expand the total to $50 billion over three years. Since companies such as Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are below investment grade, company officials argue they cannot access capital at reasonable rates which hampers their ability to compete with global giants such as Toyota (TM) and Honda (HMC). The accompanying tables contain an overview of a Global Auto Index, which declined by over 26% on an equal-weight basis and 13.5% on a market cap-weight basis over the past year (all stats are through 8/8/08) for the 39 eligible companies with market caps over $200 million. Of the top companies by largest market cap, only Volkswagen showed a gain over the past year with an industry-best stock price increase of 45% as industry leader Toyota lost nearly one-fourth of its market value. Truck maker Navistar (NAV) was the only domestic company in the index which posted a stock price gain over the past year, increasing by 3.6%. Meanwhile, the Global Airline Index of 51 companies with market caps over $200 million is down by over 30% over the past year on both an equal-weight and market cap-weight basis. Shares of UAL (UAUA) are among the biggest stock price decliners over the past year, losing nearly three-fourths of their market value, which is second only to US Airways (LCC). Airline industry leader Southwest (LUV) has fared much better than its peers over the past year with gain of about 6% through today and appears to be one of the few viable investments in the entire group. Global Auto Industry Index Stats  Global Airline Industry Stats 
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August 08
A Global Railroad ETF Proposal: A New Way For Investors To Ride The Rails
This pick is about: Canadian National Railway Company Fully Paid (CNI)
| Rating: |
$52.53 (08/08/08)
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| Closed: |
09/16/2008
@ $51.12
(-2.68%
in
39 days)
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My proposed Global Railroad ETF (click on image for full-screen view) includes 28 stocks from worldwide markets with a minimum market cap of $250 million and includes companies from the United States, Canada, Europe, and Asia. CSX ( CSX ) was the best performing domestic railroad in the fund, producing over a 40% return in the last year, including dividends. Rather than trying to pick individual stocks in the railroad industry, my Global Railroad ETF would provide investors with a single investment vehicle that is globally diversified and leveraged to the transport of agricultural and energy commodities.
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August 09
A Global Transport Exchange-Traded Fund Strategy
This pick is about: iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index Fund (IYT)
| Rating: |
$93.75 (08/09/08)
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| Closed: |
09/16/2008
@ $87.38
(-6.79%
in
38 days)
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Investors are currently limited to the iShares Dow Jones Transports (IYT) as a transport ETF option with net assets of $698 million and 20 component stocks (stats as of 8/8/08 from the iShares website ). The top five holdings account for 43.2% of invested assets and include the following: Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI, 10.7%), Union Pacific (UNP, 9.6%), FedEx (FDX, 9.1%), Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG, 6.9%), and United Parcel (UPS, 6.9%). In addition, the iShares Dow Transports ETF also includes three passenger airlines: AMR Corp. (AMR), Continental (CAL), and JetBlue (JBLU); although the combined weighting for these three companies is negligible; they represent an opportunity cost by occupying three positions in the fund and omit industry leader Southwest Airlines (LUV).
As evidence of increased commercial interest and product development of globally-focused transport ETFs among major ETF providers, the following ideas have recently been filed with the SEC: Claymore/Delta Global Shipping , PowerShares Global Transportation , and SPDR Transportation .
My strategy for a family of four global transport ETFs is outlined below with links provided to more details on the component index for each segment:
1.) Global Logistics PerformIdex - composite (30 stocks) blend of rails (8), maritime (8) , trucking (8), and air freight/delivery (6)
2.) Global Railroad BULLISHares - long rail transport
3.) Global Maritime BULLISHares - long waterway transport
4.) Global Airline BEARISHares - short passenger airlines
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August 12
NordiCaps Region Index: Analysis & Statistics For Each Country
This pick is about: Statoil ASA (STO)
| Rating: |
$29.01 (08/12/08)
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| Closed: |
09/13/2008
@ $23.92
(-17.55%
in
32 days)
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An analysis of the 116 companies included in my NordiCaps Region Index reveals the top performing Scandinavian country was Norway on both average (-1.8%) and market cap-weighted (+6.3%) trailing 52-week stock price performance, finishing well ahead of runner-up Denmark with a weighted loss of 3.2% and an average loss of 14.7%. Iceland fared worst of all the Nordic region companies with just 5 companies eligible and losses of 42% (weighted) and 49.2% (average) over the past year. The accompanying tables break down the performance of the component stocks for each of the five Nordic regions for all of the companies eligible for inclusion in my NordiCaps region stock index as of the market close on August 11, 2008, based on Bloomberg.com market data. Sweden: Analysis of 47 Component Companies  Finland: Analysis of 29 Component Companies  Denmark: Analysis of 23 Component Companies  Norway: Analysis of 12 Component Companies  Iceland: Analysis of 5 Component Companies
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August 08
NordiCaps Region BULLISHares
This pick is about: NovoNordisk A/S (NVO)
| Rating: |
$61.78 (08/08/08)
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| Closed: |
09/13/2008
@ $50.78
(-17.81%
in
36 days)
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  Click on the image above for a full-screen view of the 40 active component stocks in my NordiCaps Region Index. The statistics provided are current as of 5/22/08, reflecting the most recent update of the data for each company.
Moving beyond the single country focus of exchange-traded funds [ETFs] such as the iShares MSCI Sweden Index (EWD), I have developed a NordiCaps Region Stock Index which includes 120 companies based in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden with market caps over $1 billion US Dollars. I have also developed a ratings formula to choose 40 active companies on a quarterly basis for a semi-active ETF proposal, factoring in each company’s trailing 52-week stock price change, market cap weighting, and revenue weighting and then choosing the 40 active stocks based on the highest ratings for equally-weighted inclusion. The Nordic region is expected to outperform the United States [US] and the EURO-zone [EU] economies with a forecast of real gross domestic product [GDP] growth of 2.3% on a market-cap weighted average basis for both 2008 and 2009. This real GDP growth compares favorably to predicted growth in the US (0.8%, 1.4%) and EU (1.6%, 1.9%) for 2008 and 2009. Norway and Finland are predicted to experience the strongest real GDP growth at an average of 2.7% through 2009 thanks to strong demand and high prices for exports such as shipping services and petroleum products. Some top performers in the NordiCaps Region Index include agricultural chemical company Yara International (Oslo: Yar) (up over 100% in the last 52 weeks) and Vestas Wind Systems (Copenhagen: VWS) (up over 50% in last 52 weeks). Only six companies in this index maintain US listings for their stocks, including the following which are listed in descending order by their market caps: Nokia (NOK), StatoilHydro (STO), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Ericsson (ERIC), Autoliv (ALV), and Torm (TRMD). The NordiCaps Region Index could be developed into a semi-active ETF to provide investors with exposure to the entire Nordic region beyond just Sweden, resulting in better performance and more diversification. For example, the top three holdings in iShares Sweden (EWD) (Ericsson, Nordea Bank, and Hennes & Mauritz) account for over 30% of the fund’s assets. The chart and spreadsheet above demonstrate underperformance for this single country approach as compared to the entire Nordic region and other US/EU benchmarks. Please contact me for more information and details on the 120-stock NordiCaps Region Index.
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July 15
This pick is about: Cypress Bioscience Inc. (CYPB)
| Rating: |
$8.1 (07/15/08)
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| Closed: |
09/13/2008
@ $6.43
(-20.62%
in
60 days)
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September 11
Avistar Signs Technology Licensing Deal with IBM
This pick is about: Avistar Communications Corp. (AVSR)
| Rating: |
$1.32 (09/11/08)
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| Closed: |
09/12/2008
@ $1.35
(+2.27%
in
1 day)
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Avistar Communications (AVSR) recently signed a technology and product licensing agreement with IBM, which is detailed in a SEC filing today [PDF link]. Terms of the five-year deal call for Avistar to incorporate its bandwidth management technology into future Lotus Unified Communications product offerings. Avistar will receive an upfront cash payment of $3 million within 60 days followed by two additional $1.5 million payments, which are non-refundable and based on scheduled deliveries by the Company to IBM. Avistar will also receive a 2% royalty rate on global net sales and maintenance revenue from existing customers of Lotus Unified Communications products which incorporate the Company's technology after an undisclosed, initial sales threshold is reached by IBM. Shares of Avistar are currently trading down by 1.6% today at $1.20 per share while IBM is up about 4% at $119 per share. However, over the past six months, shares of Avistar have gained over 20% while IBM and the Nasdaq Composite Index have remained nearly unchanged. Both companies intend to issue a formal press release about the deal within the next five business days. Avistar [website link] specializes in video communications technology which enables individuals and organizations to collaborate more effectively regardless of their location. Insiders also appear bullish on the prospects for Avistar, with over 167,000 shares purchased in the past six months at prices ranging from $0.82 - $1.13 per share. 
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Investment Style:
Aggressive
[?]
The investor is willing to take risks to achieve high returns from portfolio. Investor's holding consists of speculative stocks that will produce massive gains or losses and/or the trading strategy is focused more on short term profits rather than long term appreciation
Avg exp holding time:
384.53 days
Website:
www.BioRunUp.com
About Me:
I am a pharmacist, writer, marathon runner, and investor. Check out the Ultimate Guide to Biotech Sto
... more
I am a pharmacist, writer, marathon runner, and investor. Check out the Ultimate Guide to Biotech Stocks book and DVD at http://www.biotechguides.com
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Top 5 Companies by Largest 1-Year Stock Price Decline 
