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Picks Performance:
Outperforms
14%
of community
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All-time Return
-25.03%
(in over 2 years)
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Risk (SD)
Aggressive
0.00%
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Sharpe Ratio
-32.83
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Followers
0
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Winning Picks
0
of
6
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Total Views
1765
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valuegeek's Blog Posts
HNR
HNR : A commodity/inflation play
07/25/09
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Harvest Natural Resources (HNR) is an oil producer whose major oil producing assets are located in Venezuela, where it is subject to confiscatory taxes or outright nationalization by Hugo Chavez. Its major attraction is it cash-rich and debt-free status. HNR has approximately $2.85 per share in cash ...
BIIB
PML
BIIB : Value in a biotechniology company
07/14/09
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Biogen Idec (BIIB) is a biotechnology company with two major products, Avonex (an interferon), which treats multiple sclerosis, and Rituxan (a monoclonal antibody), which treats non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Near-term growth is likely to come from the drug Tysabri, another monoclonal antibody meant for t...
FDP
FDP : A cheap food company
07/14/09
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Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc (FDP) is a vertically integrated producer of fresh and canned fruits and vegetables. While most fruits and vegetables require minimal processing and are typically shipped directly from local farmers to supermarkets over several hundred miles, some produce (notably bananas)...
RGC : Liquidation at small profit
07/01/09
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Regal Entertainment group owns the largest theatre network in USA, mainly under the Regal Cinemas and United Artists brand. I initiated this position due to the reputation of movies being a robust industry in a depression, and also because I had a price target of $15, which is a PE of 20 over its pre...
Ball Corporation : Defensive stock in the beverage industry
06/23/09
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Ball Corporation is a major manufacturer of metal and plastic packaging for food manufacturers, with a minor business in aerospace and defense. Almost 80% of revenues are derived from making aluminum cans for beverages, with the remaining 20% from plastic packaging and the aerospace business. A signi...
My new strategy and recent outperformance
06/22/09
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To the 5 people who are still reading this blog, I apologize for not writing any posts for the past 2-3 months. I was experimenting with several new strategies incorporating a technical analysis component in my stock analysis. I felt that, as an amateur investor, I could not compete with professional...
Macro : The Geithner plan throws money at good banks and good investors
03/24/09
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The latest banking rescue has been widely panned by the punditry, with even Krugman voicing his dismay, yet was warmly received by the markets. The pundits are correct : this plan will not rescue the bad banks. Instead, the new plan will grease the flow of credit into the real economy, and lift all b...
GEOY : Rebuilt position
03/21/09
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On 3/16 (Monday), I rebuilt a small position in GEOY at $18, in accordance with my previous estimate of GEOY’s intrinsic value at $18-$30. I sold the entire position the very next day at $19, thinking that manipulation by options traders will sink the stock price as we approached options expi...
Strategy : Short-term channel trading within a value-oriented framework
03/21/09
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In recent months, I have adopted a strategy of channel trading. I pick an undervalued stock according to fundamental considerations to ensure capital preservation (strong balance sheet, valuable business franchise etc.), identify short term support and resistance levels, and then buy when the price i...
GEOYW
GEOY : Liquidation and update
03/07/09
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I have recently liquidated my entire position in GEOY for a 15% gain, shortly after the completion of the NGA certification process. While the certification provides $150 million in annual revenue to GEOY, ensuring that it will be able to cover expenses and removing the risk of bankruptcy, the risk o...
ARKR
ARKR : Value in off-balance-sheet leases
02/28/09
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Ark Restaurants (ARKR) runs 20 restaurants and bars, and 30 other food operations, including fast food restaurants, food courts, and wholesale and retail bakeries. The company owns operating leases at some of the most prominent and well-trafficked locations in the US, including Bryant Park Grill and...
ARKR
ARKR : Value in off-balance-sheet leases
02/28/09
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Ark Restaurants (ARKR) runs 20 restaurants and bars, and 30 other food operations, including fast food restaurants, food courts, and wholesale and retail bakeries. The company owns operating leases at some of the most prominent and well-trafficked locations in the US, including Bryant Park Grill and...
ARKR
ARKR : Value in off-balance-sheet leases
02/28/09
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Ark Restaurants (ARKR) runs 20 restaurants and bars, and 30 other food operations, including fast food restaurants, food courts, and wholesale and retail bakeries. The company owns operating leases at some of the most prominent and well-trafficked locations in the US, including Bryant Park Grill and...
GEOY : Manipulation by options traders
02/20/09
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I’ve been following GEOY for quite a few months now, and every month on or near options expiration, the stock takes a beating and closes near an option strike price. Numerous academic studies have shown that on options expiration Friday, stock prices tend to close around option strike prices. ...
GEOY : Manipulation by options traders
02/20/09
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I’ve been following GEOY for quite a few months now, and every month on or near options expiration, the stock takes a beating and closes near an option strike price. Numerous academic studies have shown that on options expiration Friday, stock prices tend to close around option strike prices. ...
GEOY : Manipulation by options traders
02/20/09
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I’ve been following GEOY for quite a few months now, and every month on or near options expiration, the stock takes a beating and closes near an option strike price. Numerous academic studies have shown that on options expiration Friday, stock prices tend to close around option strike prices. ...
The failure of labor specialization
02/16/09
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Division of labor has played an large role in the economic achievements of mankind. The ability to specialize and accumulate knowledge in a narrow domain has allowed incredible efficiency gains that have lifted living standards for all of us. When I want to get a pair of shoes or a new shirt, I do no...
The failure of labor specialization
02/16/09
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Division of labor has played an large role in the economic achievements of mankind. The ability to specialize and accumulate knowledge in a narrow domain has allowed incredible efficiency gains that have lifted living standards for all of us. When I want to get a pair of shoes or a new shirt, I do no...
The failure of labor specialization
02/16/09
—
Division of labor has played an large role in the economic achievements of mankind. The ability to specialize and accumulate knowledge in a narrow domain has allowed incredible efficiency gains that have lifted living standards for all of us. When I want to get a pair of shoes or a new shirt, I do no...
AMTD : Update on ARS
02/14/09
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Since I published my last post about AMTD, I have received an earful from many Ameritrade’s clients who have been burnt by auction rate securites (ARS). Let me be clear from the start : I am embarrassed that I have committed a factual error in my last post. Ameritrade did indeed actively solic...
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More about valuegeek
Investment Style:
Moderate
[?]
More willing to take occasional risks while protecting assets from the risk of major losses. Portfolio is comprised mostly of solid companies with a history of consistently creating returns for investors, but includes some riskier holdings such as smallcaps, or foreign companies that will posses larger returns.
Avg exp holding time:
604.83 days
Website:
www.blogvesting.com
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